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8

Aug 2026

CFTC数据显示：随着交易员解除对英镑的看空押注，英镑净空头头寸收窄

CFTC显示英镑非商业净持仓升至-57.8k，净空头收窄7k张，情绪改善催化空头回补。叠加英国GDP韧性与核心通胀黏性，利差支撑或推升英镑，关注GBP/USD期权与EUR/GBP机会。

8

Aug 2026

伊朗—阿曼航运谈判令油价降温，美联储降息预期转向之际，美债收益率回落、美元走弱

伊朗—阿曼航运协议预期压制油价，美债收益率全线下行；美国非农显著走弱促9月加息概率降至30%、美元走软。关注利率期货看涨、欧元看涨及WTI看跌期权机会。

8

Aug 2026

印尼盾维持在18,000关口下方，GDP超预期且通胀回落，印尼央行行长候选短名单公布在即

USD/IDR回落至17,918，守住18,000关口。油价走软、GDP超预期与通胀降温支撑印尼盾；央行换届与财政赤字、MSCI降级及地缘风险仍为关键变量。

8

Aug 2026

阿根廷6月工业产出重回增长，强化对股票及主权债券的看多逻辑

阿根廷6月工业产出同比转正至2%，较前值-5.7%显著反转，释放经济修复与资产重估信号；策略上偏多ADR看涨期权及美元主权债期权，博弈风险溢价收窄。

8

Aug 2026

受疲软美国就业数据提振日元影响，欧元兑日元走弱；市场聚焦干预风险及霍尔木兹海峡风险

欧元/日元跌势未改，182关口震荡加剧：弱非农与日美干预预期支撑日元，地缘风险推升能源成本。建议短期限看跌与熊市价差，下看181.30。

8

Aug 2026

贝克休斯美国石油钻机数超预期，强化供应韧性并抑制WTI上行空间

贝克休斯美国石油钻机数意外升至454座，较预期高2座，强化供应韧性预期，或压制WTI上行空间；策略侧重区间震荡，卖出虚值看涨并配看跌对冲。

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