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18

Aug 2026

新西兰债券离岸持有占比上升，投资者预期新西兰联储（RBNZ）或转向鸽派

外资加码新西兰国债：7月离岸持有人占比升至58.9%，非居民持仓增至1,224.7亿纽元。通胀预期锚定削弱再加息逻辑，建议布局NZD下行与接收互换。

18

Aug 2026

美国Redbook零售销售增速放缓至7.6%，强化市场对美联储政策宽松的押注

美国Redbook同比降至7.6%引发关注：零售动能降温或缓释通胀，强化美联储9月转鸽预期；利率期货偏多债券，零售ETF波动或升，宜用期权对冲。

18

Aug 2026

加拿大7月新屋开工不及预期，推动市场押注加拿大央行降息

加拿大7月季调新屋开工年化22.91万套，显著低于预期24.8万套，释放地产降温信号；债市或押注更鸽派降息，建议做多加债、布局加元及银行股/REITs看跌期权。

18

Aug 2026

金价回落，美元走强与美国国债收益率飙升限制涨幅；交易员关注美联储会议纪要

黄金美盘回落终结连涨，美元走强与长端美债收益率飙升压制；市场聚焦FOMC纪要与霍尔木兹风险，金价维持4,300–4,450区间，衍生品宜偏区间策略。

18

Aug 2026

瑞郎取代日元成为融资货币，干预风险与欧元兑瑞郎触发因素逼近

融资货币策略现转向瑞郎以规避日元干预尾部风险；低融资成本支撑做空CHF/JPY表达日元正套息。若油价与利率上行，SNB零利率或推升EUR/CHF至0.95。

18

Aug 2026

美元走弱、财政担忧叠加地缘政治紧张局势提升避险需求，金银价格上扬

美元走弱叠加美财政赤字与短债供给放量，黄金白银偏多上行；通胀与地缘风险推升避险再配置，央行去美元化加速，金价目标4,500至5,000美元。

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