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20

Aug 2026

香港7月CPI同比持平于1.7%，利率前景维持稳定，恒生指数衍生品获支撑

香港7月CPI同比1.7%、环比0.2%符合预期，通胀平稳压低政策扰动与近端隐波；关注HIBOR利差，恒指期权可布铁秃鹰，USD/HKD远期均值回归。

20

Aug 2026

南非通胀放缓，但油价与厄尔尼诺风险威胁兰特走势及降息前景

南非8月通胀回落至4.3%，但油价高位与厄尔尼诺致粮价风险或推升中期通胀。策略：买3-6个月USD/ZAR看涨期权，利率端付固定Jibar互换。

20

Aug 2026

受美债财政部加大长端回购影响，美元跌至5月低位；杰克逊霍尔会议前收益率上行受限

美国财政部上调长端回购规模压降收益率，DXY跌至5月低位。FOMC仍存分歧，杰克逊霍尔或释鸽催化续跌，黄金与瑞郎避险受益。

20

Aug 2026

受高油价与FCNR(B)掉期关闭影响，印度卢比承压，美元/印度卢比上看96

美元走软下卢比仍承压：油价高企与进口购汇推升USD/INR；RBI抛汇仅缓冲。FCNR(B)优惠掉期窗口提前关闭削弱外汇流入，建议做多看涨期权/价差，关注95.90-96.00阻力、95.40支撑。

20

Aug 2026

黄金自200日均线反弹，关注4,520关键突破位，未来数周目标指向5,000

黄金反弹巩固6月以来底部、长期升势未破；回调支撑4405-4457。日线收复4520则上看4657/4673，央行持续增持或助中期冲击5000美元。

20

Aug 2026

瑞士7月贸易顺差扩大至83.7亿瑞郎，提振瑞郎前景

瑞士7月贸易顺差升至83.7亿瑞郎，受化工制药出口反弹驱动，净出口显著增强。警惕顺差扩张或推升瑞郎，USD/CHF偏空、期权布局受益。

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