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Live Updates

12

Sep 2026

CFTC数据显示：投机者将美国原油净多头仓位提高至13.66万份合约

CFTC显示原油非商业净多头升至136.6K，资金回流看涨。OPEC+托市叠加库存去化催化，油价或筑底反弹；期权可留意10/11月略价外long call或牛市价差。

12

Sep 2026

CFTC数据显示：标普500投机者增持空头，季节性“9月疲弱”逼近

CFTC：标普500投机净持仓再转弱，净空头增至-7.60万张。叠加9月季节性疲软，回调风险升温；建议用保护性认沽/熊市价差对冲，降杠杆控仓位。

12

Sep 2026

美元/离岸人民币反弹，因大华银行淡化看空立场，关注6.7040–6.7290交易区间

USD/CNH 探底 6.7043 后反弹至 6.7153，UOB 由偏空转温和回升，料 1–3 周 6.7040–6.7290 区间震荡；关注 6.7000、6.7200 阻力及联储/人行政策。

12

Sep 2026

美元指数在海量数据来袭之际企稳于99附近，市场静待美联储、英伦银行与日本央行政策决议

美元指数99附近企稳，CPI后市场押注美联储周三加息25bp。英央行、日央行接力，欧元英镑日圆待抉择；霍尔木兹紧张压油价。关注本周大波动。

12

Sep 2026

ING预计日本央行将加息至1.25%，在日元走强之际引导利率迈向中性水平

日央行或9月加息至1.25%，甚至不排除一次50bp，瞄准1.75%近中性利率。更强日元与收益率上行在即：布局美元/日元看跌、OIS支付方及曲线陡峭化。

12

Sep 2026

美国CPI公布后美债收益率回落，但在油价上涨与押注美联储加息下周线仍收涨

CPI符合预期但PPI偏强，美债长端高位震荡、油价与地缘风险推升通胀预期。市场押注91%加息；建议10年期跨式、SOFR熊对冲及原油/通胀期权布局。

12

Sep 2026

美国国债收益率攀升之际，亚洲外汇持稳，但三菱日联金融集团警告波动性或将很快回归

美债收益率冲高下，亚洲汇率利率暂稳却现背离。MUFG警示：USD/CNH隐波跌至数十年低位，恐触发亚洲货币骤贬；建议买入期权、做多跨式，并在韩台利率互换pay fixed。

12

Sep 2026

美元/日元回落至153.70，日元因押注日本央行升息而走强

美元/日元CPI后冲高回落至153.70，日元走强因市场押注日央行下周加息至1.25%。技术超卖、波动或飙升：期权偏好熊价差/跨式，关注153.55与154.40关键位。

12

Sep 2026

日元在押注日本央行加息下反弹，美国外汇稳定基金（ESF）干预似乎有限且短暂

日元反弹6%背后，美国ESF仅象征性买入约5亿美元、后续没加码。焦点转向日本央行9月18日加息与政策分化：美元/日元158下偏空，破158则策略失效。

12

Sep 2026

美元指数回吐受CPI带动的升幅，长端美债收益率下滑及油价走软施压

CPI支撑美元却被长债收益率回落抵消，DXY回吐至99.11；加息概率升至88%。美债利差与油价震荡加剧，关注DXY跨式、美债看跌及WTI牛市价差机会。

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