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Live Updates

8

Jul 2026

新西兰央行上调官方现金利率至2.50%，利率掉期反映进一步收紧预期，纽元波动或将加剧

纽储行加息25基点至2.50%抗通胀，市场押注年底前再升两次。油价回落缓压但Q2增长偏弱；纽元与套息受惠，GDP与通胀数据或引爆波动。

8

Jul 2026

纳斯达克100指数聚焦7月CPI与大型科技股财报，升息风险与AI资本开支压力升温

纳指100回撤后脆弱：鹰派FOMC、AI capex疑虑拖累半导体。7月看CPI/PCE与财报季定方向；VXN与put/call上升示警，30,700或再测亦恐深调。

8

Jul 2026

美国股票下挫，美伊敌对行动再起推升油价，并点燃对波动性上升的押注

美伊停火破裂引爆抛售：纳指100失守50日线，期指转弱；霍尔木兹风险推WTI飙4%+。机会在VIX/VXX看涨与原油多头；科技半导体宜用QQQ/SMH看跌对冲。

8

Jul 2026

纽约联储通胀预期上升，CPI高于预期促使市场重新定价美联储9月加息预期

纽约联储通胀预期走高，6月CPI意外升温触发市场重定价：9月加息概率飙至65%+，2年美债急升。短端偏鹰、做空SOFR及配置VIX看涨期权成焦点。

8

Jul 2026

道指在就业数据转弱推动下创历史新高，市场焦点转向美联储、财报季与CPI数据

道指因就业转弱再创新高，押注Fed暂停收紧；但增长放缓阴影加深。2Q财报与CPI将成引爆点，估值容错低、波动或放大，期权对冲受捧。

8

Jul 2026

加拿大贸易顺差创四年新高，出口创纪录带动经济增长并支撑加元

加拿大5月贸易顺差创四年新高，出口破纪录、进口回落推升二季度增长与加元。惟油价下跌及霍尔木兹扰动恐压后续名义出口，策略转向金属偏多、能源对冲。

8

Jul 2026

受霍尔木兹紧张局势推升供应风险及原油波动率指数飙升影响，WTI走高逼近73美元

美伊谈判破裂、霍尔木兹遇袭风险升温，WTI 回升至73美元；OVX飙破45。机构看好做多波动率、布局80-85看涨，并关注逆价差扩大与库存下滑。

8

Jul 2026

中东紧张局势推升美元需求，USD/JPY逼近40年高位，油价飙升拖累日元

中东冲突再起推升美元避险与油价，USD/JPY 逼近162.50、40年高位；美国9月加息押注升温，日本受油价拖累。警惕日圆干预，策略偏多波动期权。

8

Jul 2026

荷兰合作银行：通胀黏性支撑英镑，但政治与债务或推升欧元兑英镑至0.87

英镑强势还能撑多久？Rabobank称通胀黏性、并购资金短期托底，但政治与高债务成隐忧；料英银年底按兵不动，EUR/GBP或升向0.87。

8

Jul 2026

ING认为勒庞竞选影响已大致被市场消化，欧元下行风险仍存；欧元/瑞典克朗料于年内稍后回落

勒庞确认参选2027，ING称政治风险已被欧元计价，法债利差稳。短期EUR/USD偏下行，或失守1.140/1.08。瑞典通胀温和，EUR/SEK料久站11上方后回落。

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