Live Updates

9

Jul 2026

黄金走低，特朗普重提伊朗威胁，推高美联储加息预期并考验金市需求

美伊停火破局、霍尔木兹风险升温，金价亚洲盘回落至约4,075美元。市场押注美联储或再加息、美元走强压金；但央行持续扫货托底，波动恐加剧。

9

Jul 2026

RICS房价平衡指数6月下滑至-33%，加剧英镑压力并推高降息押注

RICS英国6月房价差值跌至-33%低于预期，楼市加速降温。降息预期升温令英镑承压，或看1.24；房建商与银行股转弱，可用期权与利率衍生品对冲。

9

Jul 2026

美元需求上升，台湾元持续承压；央行出手遏制跌势

台币跌破32背后不是基本面转弱，而是外资卖股与股利季抢美元；央行促银行集中卖汇增供给。技术面仍偏多但超买，关注32.22/32.50-60阻力与31.95支撑，策略可卖波动率。

9

Jul 2026

英镑持稳于1.3400下方，因市场上调对英央行“忧油”立场的押注且期权波动率收敛

英镑/美元徘徊1.3400下方，200日均线受压；油价飙升推高英央行加息预期，但英美利差有限令波动率压缩。策略：短卖宽跨收权利金，长买跨押注CPI后突破。

9

Jul 2026

WTI原油升破74美元，霍尔木兹冲突再燃推升战争溢价，期权需求升温

霍尔木兹海峡冲突升温推WTI反弹至74.5美元，战争溢价或结构化。技术阻力76-77.5，支撑72。建议用8-9月78-80看涨期权/牛市价差控风险。

9

Jul 2026

道明证券认为，随着债务清理限制政策空间，中国财政立场趋紧，下半年2026年刺激预期受限

警惕财政“紧绷”新常态：TD Securities称地方优先化债、稳增长退居其次；除非GDP跌至4.0–4.2%，下半年仅有限支持，或靠基建提速+地方债加发，并可能小幅降息。

9

Jul 2026

日元走弱，美元/日元逼近164.50，干预风险与期权波动率上升

日元跌势不止，USD/JPY逼近162.84并看164.50，触碰财务省“痛感阈值”。持仓极度拥挤、隐波升至12.5%，干预或引发4-5日元急挫；宜用看跌价差对冲。

9

Jul 2026

在避险情绪升温及瑞士央行偏鹰立场支撑下，美元/瑞郎自五日高位回落

USD/CHF 假突破 0.8100 后回落，风险偏好转弱推升避险瑞郎；RSI 动能降温。上看 0.8120/0.8200，下破 0.8000 恐探 0.7934。SNB 抗通胀偏鹰与美国降温叙事助瑞郎。

9

Jul 2026

美联储会议纪要出炉后美元指数持平，油价攀升，日圆干预风险升温

FOMC纪要偏鹰但就业转弱压制DXY徘徊101；欧镑反弹、日元落后逼近干预风险。油价受中东升温冲75，金价承压。策略：利率空、外汇跨式、日元防跌。

9

Jul 2026

标普500关注7,140支撑或回测7,740，第四浪调整展开中

标普500陷第4浪震荡：跌破7,348或下探7,140/7,121共振区；上破7,551再破7,721则看7,679-7,739。CPI偏高、VIX约18+财报季，方向未明。

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