Live Updates

9

Jul 2026

美元/泰铢走高，泰国通胀走软提振对泰国央行将利率维持在1%的押注

泰国6月通胀降至2.4%强化BoT按兵不动，利差推动USD/THB逼近区间上沿。想吃套息？远期做多看37.20，低波动可卖短跨，警惕能源与食品冲击。

9

Jul 2026

阿根廷5月工厂产出跌势加剧，加大比索承压并引发主权风险担忧

阿根廷5月工业产出同比跌5.7%，衰退加深警报拉响！企业盈利承压、比索恐续贬，外储流失加剧脆弱；股债齐受挫，CDS与收益率或走高。

9

Jul 2026

美国5月消费者信贷意外收缩，强化市场对经济衰退及降息预期

意外！美国5月消费信贷转负仅减1.8亿美元，远逊预期增171亿，警示消费与经济同步降温。或促美联储更早降息，资金转向国债、防御股与VIX对冲。

9

Jul 2026

日元下挫，鹰派美联储会议纪要提振美元，美元/日元升破162，干预风险升温

美联储纪要偏鹰、收益率走高叠加地缘风险推升美元，USD/JPY站稳162上方逼近163。市场押注9月或再加息，日元承压；惟165附近需防日方干预。

9

Jul 2026

随着美联储—欧洲央行政策分歧扩大，欧元/美元承压，期权偏斜暗示下行风险加剧

Fed偏鹰、ECB转鸽，EUR/USD在1.0750上方乏力，风险逆转偏put显示市场押注续跌。若失守1.0700或探1.0650；反弹至1.0800料遇阻。

9

Jul 2026

美元兑新元小幅走高，大华银行指上行空间料受限于1.2955下方，下破风险仍存

美元/新元小升但仍受1.2940-1.2955强阻。UOB警惕1-3周下破1.2890；隐波仅4.5%令买Put更划算，若收破1.2955则偏空失效。

9

Jul 2026

美联储会议纪要揭示政策分歧，市场重估美国利率路径并推高美元指数

纪要揭示美联储“表决一致、内部分歧”，通胀与就业强撑鹰派；点阵图偏加息，市场重估7月/9月行动与年末利率近4%，推升美债收益率与美元续强。

9

Jul 2026

美联储会议纪要凸显通胀风险，市场权衡进一步紧缩与美元支撑

FOMC纪要偏鹰：利率按兵不动但通胀风险仍高，AI、关税与地缘局势或推升物价；市场押注9月加息58%。美元守101关口，美债收益率承压上行。

9

Jul 2026

新西兰央行将现金利率上调至5.75%，并释放进一步收紧信号，提振纽元前景

RBNZ再加息25基点至5.75%，通胀3.8%仍偏高，暗示或续紧缩；市场押OCR近6.10%。纽美或温和上行至0.6300，期权布局控风险，但需警惕美联储偏鹰。

9

Jul 2026

美元走强与美债收益率攀升盖过中东风险溢价，金价下滑

金价周三跌逾1.3%，强美元与美债收益率升压制，油价飙升重燃通胀、市场押注Fed再收紧。技术“死亡交叉”偏空，4,000成关键。

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