Live Updates

9

Jul 2026

美元在中东空袭下仍走软，交易员聚焦美联储偏鹰转向与波动率对冲策略

中东冲突升级却美元走弱，市场或低估风险；Fed纪要偏鹰暗示再加息。策略：买VIX看涨对冲，押欧镑续升、黄金反弹，原油看跌，USD/JPY或短线急反弹。

9

Jul 2026

纽元/美元升破0.57，纽储行一致加息25个基点，并释放进一步收紧信号

RBNZ 一致加息25基点带动纽美破0.57，释放更偏鹰信号。通胀料回归目标前仍有加息空间。把握政策分化，布局0.58附近看涨期权，同时警惕风险情绪回撤。

9

Jul 2026

标普500指数第二季盈利预计增长24%，科技股领涨，大型银行步伐领先

标普500次季盈利料飙24%、收入增11%，科技贡献近半；七巨头与大行财报将定调。VIX仅14.5，期权不贵，偏多策略或迎上行惊喜。

9

Jul 2026

美元/瑞郎回落至0.8050附近，联储会议纪要未能提振美元，伊朗紧张局势升温

美元兑瑞郎跌破0.8100后走弱，逼近0.8050；纪要偏鹰仍难撑美元。关注美伊与油价变量。策略：押向0.8000看跌/价差或区间卖跨。关键0.8120反转。

9

Jul 2026

欧元/日元在德国贸易顺差推动下续涨，日本干预风险仍笼罩

EUR/JPY连涨至185.70，德国5月贸易顺差爆表推升欧元；但日方干预风险升温恐随时急跌。用看涨期权或牛市价差参与上行，多头买看跌对冲。

9

Jul 2026

大华银行预计美元/日元将测试162.80，163.00料限制升势，后市区间或在160.60–163.00

想捉美元/日元短线？UOB：24小时偏上攻，先看162.80，163阻力短期难破；跌穿162.20转区间。未来数周料160.60–163震荡，21日EMA161关键。

9

Jul 2026

纽元/美元在新西兰联储鹰派加息后企稳，受中国数据与中东紧张局势拖累

纽元兑美元升至0.5735，获RBNZ鹰派加息撑腰；但中国通胀转弱与美伊冲突推升避险美元，限制上行。隐波升至11.5%，宜布局宽跨式捕捉波动。

9

Jul 2026

德国进口5月大跌2.5%，需求疲弱忧虑加深，欧洲央行降息前景受关注

德国5月进口骤跌2.5%爆冷，预示二季度初需求转弱。工业产出与Ifo续跌，欧元或走软；DAX承压、波动率偏低待升，利率押注更宽松。

9

Jul 2026

德国出口超预期，提振DAX与欧元前景，加剧德债收益率上行压力

德国5月出口月增0.9%逆转预期下滑0.3%，外需韧性超想象！或催化DAX补涨，利好工业汽车；欧元或测1.10，Bund收益率上行、期货偏空。

9

Jul 2026

英镑在英国领导权竞逐启动之际小幅走高，英镑/美元持稳于1.3400上方

英镑/美元升至1.3405，政治不确定性缓解支撑偏多。技术面守1.3400上方，阻力1.3470、支撑1.3300。策略：买1.34看涨或做牛市价差，押注稳步走强。

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