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Live Updates

24

Jul 2026

沃什料将维持利率不变，油价上扬与鹰派异议令收紧风险仍在

沃什执掌后FOMC二度登场：料7月按兵不动、鹰派异议或增，油价反弹令9月再收紧风险低估。策略：卖短跨收时间价值，买SOFR保护性看跌防鹰转。

24

Jul 2026

英镑在油价回落中小幅走高，但美元走强与英国财政忧虑拖累英镑兑美元

英镑小涨却周线仍挫，美元因油价与加息预期获撑；地缘风险压制反弹。隐波升至7.5%，策略可选跨式捕捉波动，或熊市认沽价差防守。

24

Jul 2026

获利回吐拖累油价下滑，股市短暂走高；地缘政治与财报令夏季去杠杆风险仍在视野中

油价回吐仅短撑股市，地缘风险与去杠杆未改。8月低流动性压市、财报难稳盘：布局原油看涨与股指保护性看跌，科技财报用跨式捕捉CAPEX震荡。

24

Jul 2026

比特币跌破6.5万美元；中东紧张局势与油价飙升为加密货币涨势降温

地缘战火与油价震荡夹击，BTC冲高67,000后跌破65,000，动能转弱恐下探63,105。Fed 7/29按兵不动概率64%，期权波动或扩张；衍生品宜防御做空配保护性认沽，黄金守4,000可伺机做多。

24

Jul 2026

荷兰合作银行：伊朗战争风险推动避险美元资金流入，欧元/美元在1.14附近震荡

欧央行略鹰仍难撑欧元；避险与美联储偏鹰预期推美元走强。Rabobank 料欧元/美元未来1-3个月围绕1.14区间震荡，伊朗战事升级或加剧。

24

Jul 2026

英镑反弹，油价暴跌打击美元；美联储与英伦银行政策分歧料将主导英镑/美元走势

油价回落压美元，英镑仅反弹0.2%仍周跌0.7%。美联储加息概率升至41%，BoE按兵不动88%，利差或拖累GBP/USD；期权布局迎波动。

24

Jul 2026

布伦特油价徘徊在100美元附近，中东风险与机构资金流入推升供应风险溢价

布伦特油回落至100美元下方，但中东紧张、红海/霍尔木兹风险与哈萨克暂停出口支撑油价。机构资金转向再累积，期权波动率或升，策略偏多与卖虚值看跌。

24

Jul 2026

美元/瑞郎在接近2025年6月高位附近企稳，油价回落、美联储加息押注及中东风险支撑美元

USD/CHF徘徊0.8166近年内高位：油价回落压美元，但中东风险与9月加息80%预期撑盘。策略：回调做多、0.8120止损，配CHF看涨对冲。

24

Jul 2026

英镑因英国数据走强而上扬，但在G10货币中表现落后；市场关注英国央行维持利率不变并释放鹰派信号

英镑兑美元小涨但跑输G10，多项英国数据意外向好。市场聚焦下周BoE“鹰派按兵不动”与预测；利率定价偏紧、期权转防守，1.3150/1.3550成关键。

24

Jul 2026

美元/日元自40年来高位回落，干预疑虑抑制套利交易，Fed会议前市场趋谨慎

美元/日元回落仍居高位，逼近40年峰值引爆干预悬念。美强数据撑美元、日低利率助套息；衍生品宜买日元看涨保护，并用价差/跨式押注波动。

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