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3

Aug 2026

欧元/美元瞄准1.1500，期权交易员严阵以待关键美国就业数据公布前的波动

欧元/美元紧盯1.1500与1.1558盘整区，制造业PMI分化叠加美伊噪音、JOLTS与非农将放大波动；建议紧凑跨式、宽跨式与障碍期权，布局秋季看涨。

3

Aug 2026

土耳其贸易逆差扩大至104亿美元，尽管利率高达50%仍凸显里拉脆弱性

土耳其6月贸易赤字扩大至104亿美元，进口跑赢出口、逆差维持GDP约6%，里拉脆弱警讯再响。策略：买入USD/TRY看涨期权+短期远期对冲贬值。

3

Aug 2026

科技股走强带动股市普涨，交易员对冲中东风险；美元走软，黄金回落

周五美股普涨但科技乏力，资金偏防御迎“中东火热”周末。美元回落却金价承压，高收益率吸金。策略：铁鹰守区间、买VIX看涨、黄金做空价差。

3

Aug 2026

美联储宽松稳住美债收益率，在汇率上行空间减弱之际提振巴西和墨西哥主权债吸引力

美联储转鸽、美国短端利率下行：巴西墨西哥政策更宽松。盈亏平衡通胀升温利好新兴市场久期。外汇交易拥挤，主权长债与衍生品更值博，降对冲留部分汇率上行。

3

Aug 2026

台湾第二季GDP增速降温，内需领跌；资金外流下股市与新台币承压

台湾GDP增速放缓但动能仍强，内需五季来首超净出口；通胀黏性升温，央行Q4或加息12.5bp。台股外资大撤退，新台币与债市承压。

3

Aug 2026

美联储维持利率不变，就业数据密集来袭；美债收益率施压黄金与比特币

非农周来袭：JOLTS、ADP、初请连环轰炸，联储偏鹰且9月行动概率68%。收益率与油价共振压制无息资产，黄金守4,000，比特币盯57,800–60,000与ETF资金流。

3

Aug 2026

美国6月建筑支出意外下滑，加剧经济增长放缓信号并强化市场对美联储鸽派预期

美国6月建筑支出意外降0.1%（预期增0.2%），释放经济降温警报。关注美联储转鸽与降息押注：短债、利率互换收固定；房建/设备股买保护性看跌防波动上升。

3

Aug 2026

美国ISM制造业支付价格指数高于预期，强化投入通胀压力并巩固鹰派政策前景

美国7月ISM制造业价格支付指数意外升至71.1，显示投入品通胀顽强。联储或更久维持高利率，美元偏强，建议布局SOFR空单、DXY看涨及标普对冲。

3

Aug 2026

ISM制造业就业回升显示美联储立场趋强，提振美国国债收益率与美元

美国ISM制造业就业指数7月弹升至52.8重返扩张，工厂招工回暖。市场或重估降息路径：美债收益率偏上、美元走强、波动升温；衍生品可用TLT看跌、SOFR空单与VIX看涨应对。

3

Aug 2026

中国PMI回落至收缩区间，通胀降温加剧押注中国央行将放松政策

7月中国动能转弱：制造业PMI49.2、内需与地产拖累，通胀降至0.5%。市场押注人行再宽松、人民币或破7.30；可布局做空铜铁矿、买恒指/A50看跌、做多国债。

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