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3

Aug 2026

标普全球美国7月制造业PMI小幅走高，提振美元并令美债承压

美国7月制造业PMI升至53.9略胜预期，扩张动能稳健：美债利率或偏上，偏防御做空期货；股指卖虚值Put；美元与铜油看涨机会浮现。

3

Aug 2026

兰特涨势乏力，伊朗冲突推高油价抬升南非风险溢价，南非央行审视力度加大

兰特涨势熄火：伊朗冲突推高油价、恶化南非贸易条件，通胀高于SARB新目标且按兵不动。三条复苏路：通胀不加速、停火降油价、或央行转鹰重建信心，反弹恐渐进。

3

Aug 2026

纽约梅隆银行预计印度央行将维持利率在5.25%，印度卢比面临油价与美元逆风压力

RBI料维持回购利率5.25%不变：黏性通胀遇增长放缓。油价与强美元压卢比，但央行干预设“天花板”。交易宜卖波动、偏久期与carry，少赌汇率方向。

3

Aug 2026

新加坡工厂PMI微升至51.4，显示扩张步伐稳健，支撑市场对新元乐观情绪

新加坡7月制造业PMI升至51.4续处扩张区，电子半导体回暖支撑韧性。投资者可偏多新元与新加坡指数期货，但警惕外需与利率逆风，设止损。

3

Aug 2026

巴西制造业PMI跌入萎缩区间，加剧对雷亚尔、股市及利率预期的压力

惊变！巴西7月制造业PMI骤降至47.5、跌破荣枯线，经济动能转弱；雷亚尔与股市或承压、波动升温。可关注USD/BRL看涨、Ibovespa做空及DI利率期货机会。

3

Aug 2026

美元跌入8月：美联储指引收缩、日美干预拖累美元走势

美元7月底暴跌后8月仍偏弱：美联储缩减前瞻指引、制度改革引发信心下滑；美日干预压USD/JPY，中东降温削弱避险。策略：买美元put、做空USD/JPY价差、做曲线趋陡。

3

Aug 2026

美元/日元企稳，因美日买入日元引发干预猜测，上周动用950亿美元

美元/日元跳空急挫后暂稳，传美日或再联手护盘。上周合计干预约950亿美元逼空日元空头，波动料飙升；建议转用期权策略并关注155破位风险。

3

Aug 2026

日本央行与美联储不确定性推升美元/日元干预争论，日本削减美债持仓

美日干预争议再升温：日银态度暧昧、美债持仓回落推高美债收益率风险。利差仍主导USD/JPY，期权策略宜布局波动与利率高企，慎空美元。

3

Aug 2026

ING指出，美国与日本或通过美联储及FIMA回购机制罕见联手干预日元，力图将美元/日元限制在160附近

ING揭罕见美日联手干预：Fed参与、日本用FIMA回购换美元避售美债。意在封顶USD/JPY 160、争取时间扶日元；但政策分化仍在，155下方难久压。

3

Aug 2026

布伦特油价下滑：霍尔木兹风险持续，交易员瞄准每周油价与风险资产波动

霍尔木兹紧张反复搅动油市：周初停火传闻压布伦特，周后段空袭升温推油价。策略：低位买短期看涨、逢高止盈并空股指对冲；关注柴油裂解与跨期价差溢价。

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