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Live Updates

7

Aug 2026

巴西7月贸易顺差不及预期，加大对雷亚尔和利率前景的压力

巴西7月贸易顺差70.67亿美元大幅低于预期84亿，美元净流入放缓或压低雷亚尔。关注USD/BRL看涨期权、DI利率期货与EWZ看跌，对冲通胀与股市逆风。

7

Aug 2026

墨西哥央行维持利率在6.50%，通胀风险仍存，墨西哥比索收益率支撑成关注焦点

Banxico 连三次按兵不动，利率守在 6.50% 抗通胀，上行风险未解且回落更慢。披索收益率差吸金，优先布局 USD/MXN 看跌；短波卖波动，长端买保险。

7

Aug 2026

泰国维持2026年通胀预测；油价、泰铢与厄尔尼诺风险左右前景与对冲策略

泰国2026通胀预测维持2%中值，但季度走势剧烈：Q1负通胀后Q2跳升。油价、美元兑泰铢与厄尔尼诺成关键变量；交易员宜用期权、利率互换对冲。

7

Aug 2026

WTI攀升逼近76.50美元，伊朗限制霍尔木兹海峡通行重燃风险溢价

霍尔木兹“顺畅通行”幻象破灭：伊朗拟限敌对船只并罚货值20%，WTI反弹至76.5美元。关键咽喉受扰，风险溢价回归，建议偏多波动率布局。

7

Aug 2026

澳元/美元守稳0.7000上方，美元走强；霍尔木兹海峡原油风险与美国非农就业数据成焦点

澳元/美元跌0.36%仍守0.7000，美元指数逼近100压制反弹；霍尔木兹风险推油价却成增长税。中国贸易降温+非农在即，期权布局防破位、做多波动。

7

Aug 2026

道琼斯指数在罕见两天突破后出现“流星”警讯，回落至布林带上轨内

道指两日罕见站稳布林上轨外并现射击之星，RSI超买但广度偏弱；历史多指向1–20日温和回调。交易者可用DIA熊市看涨价差/看跌对冲，目标回中轨。

6

Aug 2026

美联储在分歧投票下维持利率不变，沃什收窄前瞻指引；美债收益率走高，通胀信誉受质疑

FOMC按兵不动却现分歧，Warsh缩短声明引发讯号不明。长债收益率走高、实际利率近零，市场押注更宽松；建议期权做波动、做空长债并布局黄金硬资产。

6

Aug 2026

韩国央行通过国内供应与ETF重启黄金买入，央行需求仍维持高位

全球央行购金飙至年近千吨；韩国央行13年来重启买金，改向本地矿商按现货价购入并买黄金ETF。金价底部或更稳，衍生品偏多。

6

Aug 2026

英镑守在1.3460附近，美国就业数据与地缘政治因素令英镑/美元维持区间震荡

英镑兑美元困在1.3400-1.3500窄幅横盘，市场屏息等NFP与初请；隐波或低估真波动，跨式/宽跨式趁低布局。地缘风险随时引爆突破。

6

Aug 2026

受强劲美国就业数据提振，美元/瑞郎在50日均线支撑下反弹，关注0.8200

美元/瑞郎强劲反弹，守住50日均线0.8052并重返0.8100。RSI回到50上方，阻力0.8150/0.8200/0.8250；利差与就业撑美元，期权看涨布局。

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