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Live Updates

14

Aug 2026

香港第二季GDP萎缩0.6%，市场关注下半年增长动能及股市波动加剧

香港次季GDP环比跌0.6%符预期，消费与旅游拖累增忧。下半年动能成焦点；建议用HSI认沽、熊市价差与科指跨式控险，并关注HIBOR期货机会。

14

Aug 2026

欧元/美元维持窄幅区间波动，疲弱的美国通胀数据缓和美联储加息预期

欧元兑美元卡在1.1511–1.1545，突破决定本月方向。上破或冲1.1570再成做空区；下破看1.1492，延伸1.1400。PPI降温压低9月加息概率，严设止损控风险。

14

Aug 2026

欧元/美元走高，市场加大押注欧洲央行加息，美联储9月加息概率回落，挑战100日均线

欧元/美元升至1.1550，押注欧央行9月加息25bp、美国通胀转软压低美联储加息概率至35%。关键看1.1567突破，站稳或上测1.1600，支撑1.1510。

14

Aug 2026

英镑兑日元下滑，日本央行加息预期升温，英国数据待公布

英镑兑日元走软：日央行9月或加息且更鹰，日元跑赢；英银料维持3.75%至2026。政策分歧扩大，建议做空或买入GBP/JPY认沽价差博下跌。

14

Aug 2026

市场将9月日本央行加息概率上调至75%，日元升势温和且干预风险逼近

日银9月加息预期升至75%，政府支持尽早行动。通胀粘性与弱日元促政策协同，但汇市反应温和。关注美元/日元160干预线，短天期看跌更优，套息融资改选瑞郎。

14

Aug 2026

中东欧通胀降温，战时能源飙升推高波兰与捷克国债收益率，重塑利率掉期交易策略

伊朗战争推高油气电价，CEE通胀趋缓但波兰、捷克逆势；波兰燃油解禁致通胀跳升。策略：波兰/捷克IRS付固定、卖波债；匈牙利/罗马尼亚收固定；做多区域电力期货。

14

Aug 2026

卢比稳定在95.40附近，油价与霍尔木兹风险令通胀与增长前景蒙阴

霍尔木兹进展牵动油价与卢比：USD/INR约95.40横盘，MCX原油回落至7,755。渣打撤销FY27降价预期，警告油价85-90美元或拖累GDP、通胀；建议用期权布局与避险。

14

Aug 2026

马来西亚金价回落至每克568.41令吉，回调开启交易机会

金价周五回落：马来西亚现货每克降至MYR568.41、每托拉MYR6,629.88。回调或带来期权布局机会；央行持续大买支撑底部，关注美元与利率波动。

14

Aug 2026

美国通胀降温削弱美联储加息预期，金价回吐涨幅向4,300美元回落

金价自4,450回调但守4,300，美元因通胀降温走弱，美联储9月加息概率降至40%。地缘风险仍撑避险；技术偏弱，关注4,285/4,347，期权宜区间策略。

14

Aug 2026

英镑/美元企稳于1.3420上方均线，疲软的美国通胀抑制美联储加息押注

英镑/美元亚洲盘逢低反弹，但1.3500上方遇阻。美PPI偏软、CPI稳，降温加息预期压美元；中东风险撑避险。守1.3422偏多，谨慎追高，关注零售销售。

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