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Live Updates

14

Aug 2026

华尔街涨势消退，疲弱零售销售与消费者情绪引发对需求驱动型通胀降温的担忧

美股新高后警讯：零售销售暴跌0.6%、信心降至51，通胀降温或因需求转弱。道指受阻53,900，滞胀风险升温；策略转防御，买近价看跌、布局曲线陡峭与原油看涨。

14

Aug 2026

印尼央行料维持利率在5.75%，SRBI收益率支撑印尼盾稳定

印尼央行料守住5.75%利率，重心转向稳印尼盾：靠SRBI高收益与外汇干预撑汇率。交易员可把握区间、套利与短期卖权策略，趁波动回落布局。

14

Aug 2026

英镑升至三个月高点，疲弱美国数据推高美联储按兵不动押注并提振英镑兑美元

英镑借美元走弱冲上三个月高位，因美零售与信心转差强化美联储按兵不动预期。策略：买1.3600短Call/卖1.3508 Put，CPI前布跨式控波动。

14

Aug 2026

MUFG认为，美国数据连串出炉将主导美元走势，经济活动数据将考验美联储“高利率维持更久”的决心

MUFG警告：下一轮美国工业生产与PMI或成美元短线“引爆点”。通胀仍高、12月加息机率偏高，数据强美元反弹，弱则急跌；建议低仓位并用跨式期权捕捉波动。

14

Aug 2026

欧元/日元持稳于184.15附近，市场押注欧洲央行与日本央行加息，波动风险升温

欧元/日元守在184.15，尽管BoJ与ECB齐指向9月收紧。欧元区GDP回暖支撑欧元，但日方干预阴影压制上行。期权策略：看涨价差、OTM看跌对冲、做多宽跨押注波动扩张。

14

Aug 2026

美联储降息预期降温、ETF资金流入推动月度涨幅，金价自6月高位回落

金价冲上4,450美元后回落至4,320，月内最多涨10%。市场降温美联储加息预期，年终利率定价降至3.86%。黄金ETF连6日吸金近21吨，需求再添火。

14

Aug 2026

金价自两个月高位回落，因美国通胀降温及霍尔木兹海峡扰动重塑美联储政策预期

金价冲高4450后回落至4400徘徊：美国通胀降温压美元、9月加息概率跌破35%。中东冲突拖累霍尔木兹航运，油价预期上调。关注4390关键位，期权策略把握突破。

14

Aug 2026

日圆交易员严阵以待日本第二季GDP与CPI数据，市场权衡日本央行收紧政策路径

日第二季GDP料持平0.5%，消费撑增长。21日CPI或回到2%目标，进口推升，利率上行压力。策略：买短期美元/日圆看跌、做多JGB、购日经跨式防大波动。

14

Aug 2026

随着欧洲天然气因LNG供应损失而趋紧且霍尔木兹海峡风险升温，布伦特油价受改道运输提振

中东风险升温推高油气，但布伦特受改道支撑、TTF因卡塔尔LNG缺口更紧。IEA/OPEC下修需求、Q3缺口扩大。策略：做多TTF波动，布伦特区间+近月看涨对冲。

14

Aug 2026

北欧银行预计欧洲央行将通过三个季度各加息25个基点，将存款利率升至3%，收益率走高

Nordea押注欧央行再升息三次至存款利率3%，由连月转季度推进；中东局势左右节奏。策略：买短利率看跌、做Euribor payer，并做空Bund捕捉长债收益率上行。

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