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Live Updates

17

Aug 2026

零售销售疲软拖累美元下滑，美债收益率创数十年新高，金价走强

美元因零售疲弱下挫至99.42，但美债收益率高企、30年拍卖5.216%创新高，债务逼近40万亿。金银暴涨却遇“Big 8”巨空与兴登堡凶兆，警惕回撤。

17

Aug 2026

欧元延续四周涨势，因美德两年期收益率利差收窄，目标上看1.17区间

欧元/美元连涨四周：欧元区经济展韧性叠加美德2年利差收窄至-136bp，推升汇价。突破1.1625/50或冲1.17；下方支撑1.1550/75，期权控风险布局。

17

Aug 2026

加拿大元走强，强劲CPI及油价上升令美元/加元承压

加元暴走机会来了？加拿大7月CPI强于预期叠加油价高企，USD/CAD跌至1.3852。美联储转鸽压美元，中东紧张推燃料成本，商品货币受惠。

17

Aug 2026

欧元/加元在加拿大CPI高于预期下仍持稳，市场押注欧洲央行收紧政策支撑欧元

欧加强势还能追？加国通胀升至3%仍难扭转，市场押注欧洲央行9月再加息支撑欧元。EUR/CAD守1.6070偏多，建议牛市看涨价差瞄1.6300控风险。

17

Aug 2026

星展上调台湾2026年GDP预测至11.6%，料实现双位数增长并预计12月加息

台湾经济要“破表”了？DBS三度上修2026年GDP至11.6%、2027年5.6%，料创30多年最快；内需回暖、通胀超2%促Q4或加息12.5bp，利多新台币与科技股衍生品。

17

Aug 2026

美元跌至两个月低点，疲弱美国数据强化市场对美联储鸽派押注，提振日元与黄金

美数据爆冷拖累美元至两月低，USDJPY远离160；BoJ升息预期飙升。黄金重返4400上方看多。紧盯布伦特80–90与中东风险，决定美元下一波。

17

Aug 2026

加拿大7月核心CPI持平于0.2%，强化市场对加拿大央行降息的押注

加拿大7月核心CPI环比再报0.2%稳住通胀，市场押注央行降息近在眼前：OIS降息概率逾70%。短端做多CORRA、曲线陡峭化；加元或走弱，布局CAD看跌/USD/CAD价差。

17

Aug 2026

英镑兑美元延续涨势，随着市场对美联储加息押注降温，关注1.3600阻力位

英镑/美元站稳三大均线、动能偏多，美元走弱助攻冲击1.3600/1.3700，目标1.3850；策略偏多配看涨期权，严守1.3495止损防回撤。

17

Aug 2026

DBS称美元/日元逼近160之际，日圆干预风险再现，华盛顿提供政治掩护

星展：市场紧盯日本护盘日圆，忽略美元外溢。华盛顿以FIMA扩容作政治掩护与流动性支持，美元/日圆逼近160仍存突袭式干预；交易宜以短期看跌期权防波动。

17

Aug 2026

美元走软、市场押注美联储暂停加息，黄金守住涨幅；交易员关注4,506美元阻力位

金价回升至4,401美元，美元走弱与9月不加息概率升至70%成推手；技术守4,385支撑、目标4,506。美伊僵局推高油价，建议谨慎偏多，期权对冲。

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