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8

Sep 2026

加拿大国家银行预计在贸易风险下美元兑加元将测试1.40，较长期加元有望回升

加元第三季靠数据转强、油金高企反弹，USD/CAD曾跌至1.377后回到1.38上方。策略：短线看回升至1.40，逢高止盈，长线押回落至1.33。

8

Sep 2026

道明证券指出选举与财政风险，2026年美元/巴西雷亚尔偏向仍维持上行

TD Securities 警告：巴西选举与财政疑虑拖累雷亚尔，USD/BRL 上行压力未减；走势与2014年高度相似。维持H2 2026 5.30，暂避套息，等待更佳做空点。

8

Sep 2026

美国就业意外强劲推升9月美联储加息概率，市场重估利率走向中性水平

爆表就业把9月加息概率推回60%+，中性利率略高4%暗示再加息2-3次甚至延至2027。交易员布局做空近月SOFR，并用长债ETF看跌期权对冲，拐点再转收息与买看涨。

8

Sep 2026

英镑承压：财政融资疑虑与英伦银行风险挥之不去，EUR/GBP仍偏向走高

英镑受希利“促增长+守财政”讯号仍难安：融资不明、外资持英债29%放大抛压。若BoE不够鹰，GBP恐跌；建议3个月EUR/GBP看涨瞄0.87，并用短期GBP看跌对冲。

8

Sep 2026

金价跌破4,400美元，中东紧张局势推升油价、加息押注限制金价上行

金价触高4,443后回落至4,400，虽美元偏软仍受加息预期压制。中东冲突推油价至91美元。关注4,350破位；期权建议原油Long Call、黄金OTM Put/长跨。

8

Sep 2026

日元走强风险引发去杠杆化，冲击套利交易及易受影响的全球股市板块

日元走强或触发套息平仓，外溢成流动性挤压：股市先卖“赢家”，美元走弱更伤外资回报。紧盯AI拥挤交易、信用利差、波动率与外资流向。

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