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7

Oct 2026

植田和男释放有条件收紧信号，美元/日元守在158；市场计入10月加息概率

美元/日元守在158上方窄幅震荡：日银加息预期仅25%，官员转硬或再干预。关注薪资与FOMC纪要，关键位158.50/157.00，破位或急跌。

7

Oct 2026

美元指数跌破102，欧元与澳元走高，油价在美联储会议纪要公布前下跌

美元转弱、DXY再破102，风险偏好回暖！欧元反弹至1.1280，镑美逼近1.33，澳元冲0.70；金价守4200下，油价跌破87。关注纪要与期权布局。

7

Oct 2026

市场关注日本央行10月报告，日元走弱之际，期货定价显示加息概率为四分之一

日银10月加息概率仅26%，但东京通胀跳升或逼其加快节奏，触发日圆重定价。美日利差仍阔，USD/JPY盯157支撑，破位或下看153；缺乏鹰派则回159-160。

7

Oct 2026

戴利警示美联储或需进一步收紧政策：关税、AI芯片与油价冲击恐致通胀黏性加剧

戴利放鹰：支持9月加息；关税、中东油价与AI缺芯或令通胀更粘。交易员宜增配短端利率对冲、熊市趋平，并用芯片与原油期权做双重保险。

7

Oct 2026

加元企稳，魁北克选举与阿尔伯塔公投令政治风险持续受关注

加元兑美元波动有限，但政治悬念暗藏：PQ少数胜出仍酝酿独立公投，市场转盯10月19日阿尔伯塔公投；USD/CAD技术超买现反转，1.42上方承压、下看1.40。

7

Oct 2026

澳元/美元小幅走高，受美债收益率回落提振；交易员关注FOMC会议纪要与关键支撑位

美债收益率回落拖累美元，澳元趁势反弹至0.6980；但美澳利差超100bp、RBA加息概率仅20%，汇价仍偏空，关注FOMC纪要与0.6965支撑。

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