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2

Jul 2026

法国5月预算赤字扩大至933亿欧元，加剧对OAT国债收益率及风险资产的压力

法国5月预算赤字扩大至933亿欧元，财政持续恶化；或推升法债收益率与法德利差。策略：做空OAT期货、买CAC40看跌、逢高做空欧元，并用CDS对冲评级下调风险。

2

Jul 2026

瑞士CPI降温至0.5%，市场权衡瑞士央行进一步降息，美元/瑞郎持稳

瑞士6月CPI同比0.5%放缓、环比零增长，强化SNB后续降息预期；但美联储更偏鹰派，利差支撑USD/CHF偏多，关注0.8035支撑、0.8160阻力。

2

Jul 2026

瑞士通胀维持在0.5%，价格稳定支撑瑞央行鸽派观点并拖累瑞郎

瑞士6月CPI同比0.5%符合预期，通胀温和巩固SNB夏季偏鸽立场；加息可能性降温、降息预期升温。利差扩大料压瑞郎，EUR/CHF或缓步上行趋近1.0000。

2

Jul 2026

瑞士6月通胀持平低于预期，增强市场对瑞士央行降息押注并施压瑞郎

瑞士6月CPI按月零增长，低过预期，年通胀降至1.2%稳处目标区间；SNB 9月再降息机率升温，瑞郎或转弱，布局EUR/CHF、USD/CHF看涨期权。

2

Jul 2026

阿联酋金价小幅走高，央行增持支撑避险需求

阿联酋金价周四续扬：每克479.97迪拉姆。央行买盘与避险需求撑底，盯紧美国就业数据；GVZ偏低，价外看涨期权或成捕捉上行机会。

2

Jul 2026

日本释放日元隐性护盘策略信号，当局锁定特定点位狙击投机资金

日方回避干预价位、以沉默增不确定性，拟抬高做空日元成本挤压投机。空头仓位再膨胀、隐波飙升，USD/JPY恐现突发反转，宜用期权防黑天鹅。

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