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7

Jul 2026

印尼贸易逆差终结72个月连盈纪录，引发对印尼盾波动加剧的担忧

印尼5月爆16.1亿美元逆差，终结72个月顺差；出口疲弱、油气缺口创新高。印尼盾波动或放大：可布局USD/IDR看涨、EIDO看跌，并用布油期货对冲风险。

7

Jul 2026

纽元/美元回落至0.5700附近，沃勒鹰派表态及美国服务业数据支撑美元

纽元/美元徘徊0.5700受压！沃勒鹰派+美国服务业韧性推升美元，美纽政策分化扩大。技术面阻力0.5717，跌破支撑或下探；可考虑买入0.5650看跌期权。

7

Jul 2026

美国国债收益率和美元走强限制反弹，金价下滑；市场关注美联储会议纪要与CPI数据

金价失守关键位：美债收益率与美元坚挺压制反弹，技术面现“死亡交叉”。市场押注12月加息88%，焦点转向7月CPI，期权波动升温，警惕4,100下探。

7

Jul 2026

美元指数回吐涨幅，疲弱非农就业数据削弱美联储加息押注，油价涨势亦趋弱

非农与薪资双双逊预期打断美元升势，DXY回落至100.9；FedWatch显示9月加息概率下调。油价降温舒缓通胀，美元料区间震荡，期权卖波动率成焦点。

7

Jul 2026

随着 OPEC+ 增产及美国供应激增，原油“战争溢价”消退，油价面临下行压力

战争溢价蒸发，WTI约68.5、布伦特72美元震荡收敛；OPEC+增产、SPR释放与美国产量高企叠加需求转弱，曲线转正价差指向供应过剩，反弹或宜逢高做空。

7

Jul 2026

荷兰合作银行预计新西兰联储加息25个基点，纽元疲弱，上行空间有限

抢先布局纽元？Rabobank料RBNZ 7月8日加息25bp至2.5%已被消化；油价回落、CPI偏弱及信心下滑，令纽元上行有限、下行风险更大。

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