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23

Jul 2026

市场严阵以待美国经济分析局（BEA）修订核心PCE编制方法，对通胀趋势影响料有限

9月30日BEA修订PCE方法：投资组合管理、法律与软件仅占3.67%，或令2026年5月核心PCE同比“下修”约15基点。警惕算法误读引发债券短期错价，伺机逆向交易。

23

Jul 2026

霍尔木兹局势紧张推升供应忧虑，期权交易员转向价差策略，WTI突破90美元

油价暴冲！WTI 升破 90 美元、月涨近三成，中东冲突与海峡航运风险推高断供忧虑。技术偏多但 RSI 超买，慎追涨；可用牛市价差控险，回调再布局。

23

Jul 2026

道明证券认为油价推动的7月美联储加息定价被高估，建议做多7月OIS接收端

油价走高与美伊紧张推升7月加息定价至8bp，TD Securities称市场或过度付溢价，建议接收7月OIS；10年美债4.66%-4.69%，阻力4.81%与5%。

23

Jul 2026

欧元/英镑走低：欧洲央行维持利率不变，市场计入9月加息预期，能源与英国不确定性升温

ECB按兵不动后EUR/GBP冲高0.8544回落至0.8530；能源与中东冲突推升9月加息定价、波动或放大。低隐波下可买短期跨式/宽跨式，配合油价与利差对冲。

23

Jul 2026

德国商业银行预计，随着美元走软拖累美元/墨西哥比索（USD/MXN）走低，市场对墨西哥央行（Banxico）加息的押注将逐步退潮

德国商业银行警告：市场高估Banxico未来一年三次加息，墨西哥通胀与增长转弱，收紧空间有限；一旦预期出清比索或承压，但若美联储鹰派预期退潮美元走弱，USD/MXN料下行。

23

Jul 2026

拉加德暗示欧洲央行一致同意按兵不动，7月加息讨论升温恐加剧数据驱动的波动风险

拉加德称7月利率按兵不动一致通过，但有人提议加息；欧央行拒给前瞻指引、紧盯二轮效应。9月前数据密集，€STR波动或飙：用Euribor虚值payer及短跨式对冲。

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