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8

Oct 2026

随着利差收窄且美元/日元波动加剧，日元作为套息交易融资货币的角色遭质疑

日圆升值与BoJ渐进升息令融资成本上升，利差交易格局重估；美日利差收窄或压低USD/JPY。投资者宜用期权对冲波动，并关注CHF替代融资机会。

8

Oct 2026

美联储会议纪要将出炉：市场低估加息概率，PCE 预测值上调且期限溢价维持高位

纪要将出炉却难改决策：市场仅押21.6%再加息，但PCE即时预测升至3.69%、Q4看3.84%。期限溢价飙96bp，收益率超5.3%。法政局推强美元黄金。

8

Oct 2026

智利9月录得20.47亿美元贸易顺差，逆势高于持平预期并支撑比索前景

智利9月意外录得20.47亿美元贸易顺差，远超预期持平，暗示铜出口韧性与净出口提振基本面；CLP或走强、USD/CLP承压，关注看跌期权与利率差交易。

8

Oct 2026

欧元/波兰兹罗提关注4.40–4.41阻力位，波兰央行暗示11月加息风险

兹罗提获喘息但欧元/兹罗提逼近4.40–4.41关键“天花板”，突破或冲4.45/4.48。NBP料按兵不动3.75%，总裁或放鹰，为11月加息铺路，波动升温。

8

Oct 2026

尽管技术支撑犹在，但随着市场对美联储加息预期降温，美元短期料受限

美元靠美科技/AI资金流入获结构性支撑，但涨后上行空间收窄！劳市转弱、联储更耐心、长债收益率自我收紧，升息预期或下修；战术转区间与期权做空反弹。

8

Oct 2026

英镑兑美元下挫，市场静待美联储会议纪要，中东紧张局势推升避险需求

英镑兑美元跌破1.3200中段，美元因避险与美债收益率高企走强；FOMC纪要成关键催化。关注1.3285/1.3315阻力、1.3240/1.3180支撑，宜区间策略控波动。

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