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13

Aug 2026

英国GDP超预期，德银料下半年在能源账单与预算风险下放缓

英国GDP春季按季增0.4%，上半年年化2%领跑G7；但能源账单与油价高、预算不确定性将拖累下半年仅0.1%。英镑、利率与股指波动交易机会浮现。

13

Aug 2026

美元/日元逼近160，东京支持日本央行更快加息，期权偏向日元升值方向

USD/JPY徘徊160下方：日本加快升息令美日利差收窄，财政风险溢价趋稳或促日圆修复。衍生品可布局看跌期权/价差，目标152，并用障碍期权防突发干预。

13

Aug 2026

美国核心PPI低于预期，强化降息押注并提振风险偏好

美国7月核心PPI仅升0.2%低预期，通胀降温信号再现：利率期货宜偏多SOFR，标普期权做看涨价差；美债利率下行或压美元，可卖DXY买欧元看涨。

13

Aug 2026

美国7月PPI低于预期，强化降息押注并打压美元

美国7月PPI同比4.7%低预期，通胀降温加速。市场押注美联储更鸽、降息概率升；SOFR/美债期货看多，股指期货偏强，美元或走弱，波动率下行可卖权利金。

13

Aug 2026

7月CPI出炉后，市场下调9月美联储加息概率，如今预计降息将于2027年重启

CPI后彭博定价：9月加息概率降至39.9%，短期紧缩预期转弱。UOB看美联储维持利率至2026、2027降至3.25%。策略：卖波动、SOFR区间；布局2s10s陡峭化，并用深度价外payer swaption对冲油价冲击。

13

Aug 2026

央行压力指数显示，随着法国与意大利债务压力加剧，针对欧洲央行（ECB）的政治施压再起

警惕欧央行再政治化！AI“央行压力指数”显示政客干预或回潮：PEPP退场、NGEU尾声、法意债务高企，利差与欧元波动或飙升，交易员宜买期权对冲。

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