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Live Updates

19

Aug 2026

美元在7月美联储会议纪要发布前走软，瑞郎走强，美元/瑞郎测试0.8100支撑位

美元走软+避险情绪推升瑞郎，美元/瑞郎逼近0.8100，关键看0.8040支撑。焦点转向7月FOMC纪要，波动或放大；可用跨式、铁鹰及短期美元看涨期权对冲。

19

Aug 2026

南非7月CPI报4.3%，提振降息押注、提升债券吸引力并影响兰特对冲策略

南非7月CPI仅升4.3%低预期，通胀降温点燃降息想象！SARB 9月或偏鸽；FRA/互换收固定、国债期货受益。警惕ZAR走弱，用USD/ZAR短期看涨对冲；股市利率敏感板块与Top40期权迎机。

19

Aug 2026

欧元/美元逼近1.1600，欧元收益率在FOMC会议纪要与HICP终值确认公布前保持坚挺

欧元兑美元冲上1.1600看似强势，其实过度延伸：欧债高位但美债趋稳，FOMC纪要或偏鹰压欧元。策略：短天期看跌期权，目标回落1.1300。

19

Aug 2026

英国7月RPI升至0.6%，加剧市场对英伦银行“高利率维持更久”的押注

英国7月RPI环比跳升0.6%（前值0.3%），通胀黏性再敲警钟。BoE或更久维持高利率，SONIA重定价；英债承压收益率走高，英镑与通胀互换迎战术机会。

19

Aug 2026

油价坚挺令卢比走软；印度央行拟提前结束优惠美元互换

卢比续弱、油价高企与霍尔木兹紧张推升USD/INR至95.76。RBI提前关FCNR掉期或收紧流动性。策略：买USD/INR看涨、原油牛市价差，警惕干预反转。

19

Aug 2026

金价跌破4,450美元，油市紧张推升收益率，联储加息预期升温令美元走强

FOMC纪要前，金价受压4450下方；油价因霍尔木兹风险推升通胀，30年美债息飙至2007高位，加息概率68%。策略：金偏空配保护性Put，油看涨，做空美债、偏多美元。

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