How stocks have moved after US elections: what the data shows

Post election stock market performance has been mixed on the first day and more constructive over longer windows. The S&P 500 rose on the day after only 10 of 25 US presidential elections since 1928, yet it was higher between Election Day and inauguration in about 80% of cases since 1984. This guide describes what happened and when. It does not forecast anything.

Think of an election as a scheduled storm warning. Everyone knows the date, so by the time results arrive much of the debate is already reflected in prices, and what moves markets on the day is mainly what was not known. That is why the same event can lift stocks one cycle and unsettle them the next.

All figures below are past data, each attributed to the source that published it. Different sources measure different periods and use different methods, so numbers do not always match.

Key takeaways

• The first session after a presidential election has been a coin toss for the S&P 500, with large falls in 2008 and 2012 and large gains in 2020 and 2024.
• Between Election Day and inauguration, the S&P 500 was higher in about 80% of periods since 1984, according to Horizon Investments. The two exceptions came during the 2000 and 2008 market downturns.
• The first-day move has not been a reliable guide to the next four years. Several analysts describe the evidence as showing no obvious, discernible pattern.
• After the 3 November 2026 midterms, the Dow Jones Industrial Average posted its largest one-day gain after a midterm election since 1982, according to CFRA Research cited by CNN.
• Election results are one input among many. Inflation, interest rates, earnings, oil prices and geopolitics have often mattered as much as who won.

Post election stock market performance at a glance

Sources: Bloomberg and YCharts data published by the Motley Fool (18 November 2024); Horizon Investments with Bloomberg data via Advisor Perspectives; Morningstar Direct data published by NBC News and CNBC; Associated Press market reports; Fortune; CNN. Details and dates are in each section below.

What happens on election night and the next day

Election results day market movement tends to start before the result is clear. US stock index futures trade almost around the clock, so prices can react overnight to early returns, and the first regular session after the vote then shows how investors weigh the outcome against what they expected.

Three things usually drive that first session:

• Uncertainty clearing. A decisive result can remove a source of doubt, while a close or delayed count can extend it. In 2020, the S&P 500 rose 2.2% on Wednesday 4 November while votes were still being counted, according to the Associated Press.
• Expectations versus outcome. Markets price in the likely result in advance. A result that matches expectations can produce a small move, and a surprise can produce a larger one.
• Everything else on the same day. Oil, inflation data, central bank news and company earnings all keep arriving. The first-day move is a blend of the election and the rest of the news.

The official calendar is worth knowing. For the 2024 cycle, the National Archives lists Election Day as 5 November 2024, the meeting of electors on 17 December 2024, Congress counting electoral votes on 6 January 2025 and Inauguration Day on 20 January 2025. A separate guide explains when the next US election takes place and how the process works.

The day after a presidential election

Bloomberg and YCharts data, published by the Motley Fool on 18 November 2024, tracked the S&P 500 and its precursor index on the first trading day after every presidential election since 1928. The index rose on 10 of the 25 occasions. The table shows the elections from 1980 to 2020, alongside the index’s four-year return reported in the same table.

Source: Bloomberg and YCharts, as published by the Motley Fool, 18 November 2024. The four-year window runs from the election, and measurement conventions such as price-only versus total return are not stated.

Two readings stand out. First, the sign of the first day has not lined up neatly with the four years that followed: 2008 began with a fall of 5.3% and was followed by a four-year gain of 42%, while 2004 began with a gain of 1.1% and was followed by a four-year fall of 11.0%. Second, the windows contain very different economic periods, including the 2000 to 2002 bear market and the 2008 financial crisis, which the election did not cause.

The same source reported that, in the 15 elections where the index fell on the first day, it gained over the following four years in 12 (80%). It also reported that stocks rose in 19 of the last 24 four-year presidential terms. The author’s conclusion was that the first-day move is not a strong predictor of the next four years.

The 2016 and 2020 elections

The 2016 election is a good example of an overnight reversal. CNBC reported on 11 November 2016 that the Dow and the S&P 500 had risen about 3% since Tuesday’s close, recovering from a steep drop in overnight trading on election night. The same piece noted that the median S&P 500 return between election and inauguration had been 3.7% since 1952, and its headline argued that the post-election bump probably means nothing.

In 2020 the count ran for days. The Associated Press reported that on Wednesday 4 November 2020 the S&P 500 rose 74.42 points, or 2.2%, to 3,443.44, the Nasdaq Composite rose 3.9% to 11,590.78 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.3% to 27,847.66. The small-cap Russell 2000 was little changed, up less than 0.1%.

The 2024 election

The Associated Press reported that on Wednesday 6 November 2024, the day after Election Day, the Dow rose 1,508.05 points, or 3.6%, to 43,729.93. The S&P 500 rose 2.5% to 5,929.04, the Nasdaq Composite rose 3% to 18,983.47 and the Russell 2000 rose 5.8% to 2,392.92. The Motley Fool table lists the S&P 500 move as 2.6%, a reminder that sources can differ by a tenth of a percentage point depending on rounding and the data feed used.

From Election Day to inauguration

Many studies use the period from the vote to the swearing-in, which covers roughly 11 weeks. Two sources give a sense of the record, and they use different start dates:

• Horizon Investments, with Bloomberg data. Stocks were positive in this window about 80% of the time going back to 1984, with data as of 20 January 2021. Only two periods ended lower, in 2000 during the technology bubble’s unwinding and in 2008 during the global financial crisis. Excluding those two, stocks were up in every remaining period, with an average return of 5.9%.
• CNBC, 11 November 2016. The median S&P 500 return between election and inauguration had been 3.7% since 1952.

The two figures are not directly comparable because the start dates, the number of observations and the way the average is taken all differ. They do agree on the broad picture: most periods since the 1950s ended higher, and the exceptions occurred when the economy was under severe stress. That is a description of the past, and a period ending higher says nothing certain about the next one.

Twelve months and four years after the vote

Longer windows tend to reflect the economy more than the ballot box. Morningstar Direct data, published by NBC News and CNBC, analysed 24 presidential elections using returns six and 12 months after Election Day, and reported only a few examples in full. Twelve months after the 1980 election the S&P 500 was up 0.6%, after the 1984 election it was up around 19%, after the 1976 election it was down around 6%, and after the 2020 election it was up more than 42%. The article’s own conclusion was that there is no obvious and discernible pattern.

The Motley Fool data above adds that the S&P 500 rose through 7 of 9 administrations (78%) that followed a positive first-day move. Put next to the 80% rate after a negative first day, the difference is small. A first-day signal that works about as well in either direction is not much of a signal.

Several factors sit behind the spread of outcomes:

• Starting valuations and interest rates differ widely from one cycle to the next.
• Recessions and shocks have overlapped with some post-election windows, including 2000 to 2002 and 2008.
• Policy timing matters. Legislation takes months to pass and years to affect earnings, and its eventual effect is often different from what markets first assumed.

Post election stock market performance after midterm elections

Midterm elections are held halfway through a presidential term and decide the composition of Congress. There is a separate guide to what the US midterm elections are and how they work, and a longer look at the midterm election stock market history across the whole year of the vote and the months that follow.

For the day after the vote, recent history is mixed:

Sources: Fortune (7 November 2018); Associated Press (9 November 2022); CNN (4 November 2026).

The 2022 session shows why the day after is a noisy measure. The Associated Press recorded the S&P 500 falling 79.54 points, or 2.1%, to 3,748.57, and one wire headline that day noted that the inflation report due the next morning was also in focus. In other words, the market was reacting to more than one event.

How US stocks moved after the 2026 midterms

The most recent data point is Wednesday 4 November 2026, the day after the midterm elections held on 3 November. CNN reported that Democrats took control of Congress, which leaves a divided government because the president belongs to the other party. Final seat counts are published by the Associated Press and by state election authorities, and may still change as counting is completed.

On the market side, CNN reported the following for that session:

• The Dow rose 1,569 points, or about 3%, its biggest single-day gain after a midterm election since 1982, according to CFRA Research. It was also the index’s best day since April 2025.
• The S&P 500 rose 1.58% and the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.44%. The Motley Fool listed closing levels of 53,356 for the Dow, 7,689 for the S&P 500 and 25,737 for the Nasdaq Composite.
• Brent crude fell almost 8.7% to USD 94.62 a barrel, its lowest settlement since 31 August.
• Treasury yields fell as bonds rose, with the Motley Fool putting the 10-year yield about 6 basis points lower at 4.89%. The US dollar weakened against a basket of major currencies.

The reasons attributed in the coverage varied. CNN reported that investors welcomed a clear result, and that traders were weighing a possible easing of the conflict involving Iran, which pushed oil lower. Analysts at Deutsche Bank said a divided government could curb spending and had eased fiscal concerns. CNN also reported that some analysts said AI and data-centre stocks were under pressure on questions about possible future state restrictions on data centres. The Motley Fool listed persistent inflation, AI infrastructure spending and Federal Reserve policy uncertainty among the risks that remain.

This is a single session, and a single session is only the first line of a longer story. Later weeks will be shaped by inflation data, central bank decisions and corporate earnings as much as by Congress.

How to read a first-day move

A headline such as “best day since” is a ranking, not a forecast. A few questions help put a first-day move in proportion:

• What was the move measured against? The Dow’s gain of about 3% on 4 November 2026 was large for the Dow, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite rose by around half as much. Indices weight their members differently, so the same day can produce different headline numbers.
• Was the move broad or narrow? CNN’s coverage of the 2026 session pointed to gains across the indices alongside pressure on AI and data-centre shares, which shows that an index-level rise can hide sector differences.
• What else moved? Oil fell almost 8.7% the same day and Treasury yields fell. When several markets move together, it is harder to credit any one cause.
• How does it compare with earlier sessions? The 2018 session (up 2.1% for the S&P 500) and the 2022 session (down 2.1%) were the same size and opposite in direction, which is a good reminder that the sign cannot be assumed in advance.
• What happened next? A first-day move is a single data point. Checking the weeks that followed, as the Horizon Investments and Morningstar figures do, gives a fuller picture than the first session alone.

Does party control change the picture?

Studies that sort history by which party controls Washington have produced results that analysts treat with caution. YCharts data, found that the S&P 500’s best annualised returns came under a divided Congress, with one party controlling one chamber and the other party the second. That held under presidents of both parties.

Three caveats apply:

• Small samples. Each combination of president and Congress has occurred only a handful of times, so one unusual period can dominate an average.
• Hidden drivers. Each arrangement has coincided with particular economic conditions, which may explain part of the result.
• No consistent winner. The index has generally posted positive returns regardless of which party held office, according to the same source, so party control alone has not been a reliable guide.

This guide takes no position on parties or candidates. The point is narrower: past returns sorted by party control describe what happened, and they do not describe what a given outcome will cause.

Why election results impact the stock market

The election results impact on stock market prices works mainly through expectations. Investors do not price an election in a vacuum. They try to estimate how policy on taxes, trade, regulation, spending and energy could change company earnings and interest rates, and then how likely each outcome is. A result moves prices to the extent that it differs from that estimate.

A few channels come up repeatedly in coverage:

• Fiscal policy. Expectations about spending and borrowing influence Treasury yields, which feed into the valuation of stocks. Deutsche Bank’s comment on 4 November 2026 about divided government easing fiscal concerns is an example.
• Sector exposure. Some industries are more sensitive to regulation or trade policy than others, so sectors can diverge on the same day. After the 2026 vote, CNN reported pressure on AI and data-centre shares while the broader indices rose.
• Volatility. Uncertainty tends to lift measures of expected volatility and then fade once the result is known. For background on that, see the explainer on the volatility index.
• Non-political news. Oil, inflation, rates and earnings keep moving. The 2000 and 2008 post-election declines are usually attributed to the technology bubble and the financial crisis, not to the vote itself.

Post-election moves can also fade, and the 2016 election is an example of a large overnight drop that reversed within days. That is a reason to treat the first session as information about expectations rather than as a verdict.

The limits of election-based studies

Election studies are popular because they are easy to explain, and that is also their weakness.

• Small sample. There have been 25 presidential elections since 1928 and far fewer in the modern era, so averages move a lot with each new observation.
• Different methods. Start dates range from 1928 to 1952 to 1984. Some figures are price-only and some include dividends. The index itself has changed over time, and the Motley Fool notes it uses the S&P 500 and its precursor.
• Rounding and feeds. The first-day move for 2024 appears as 2.5% in one source and 2.6% in another, and the Motley Fool’s own 2026 write-up lists the S&P 500 gain as both 1.58% and 1.59%.
• Overlapping events. An election rarely happens alone. Recessions, wars, rate cycles and technology booms have all coincided with elections.
• Hindsight. Patterns found by searching history can fade once they become widely known.

Treat the numbers in this guide as a map of what happened, with all the uncertainty that implies, and not as a rule for what comes next.

Other markets around an election

Elections move more than stock indices. The same session in November 2026 shows how several markets can react together.

Indices. The US indices rose on 4 November 2026, led by the Dow. Index prices can move sharply within minutes of results or data being released, and gaps between the close and the next open can be large.

Forex. CNN reported that the US dollar weakened against a basket of major currencies on 4 November 2026. Currency pairs involving the US dollar can move quickly around election results, yield changes and data releases.

Gold. The Motley Fool reported that gold rose in the same session. Gold prices can swing sharply when interest rate expectations, the dollar and risk sentiment shift at the same time.

Each of these moves reflects a mix of causes, and the election is only one of them.

What this history means for traders

Nothing in the data above says what will happen after the next vote, and nothing here is a recommendation. What the history does offer is context for managing risk around a scheduled event.

Traders who study election periods often use a checklist like this:

• Know the calendar. Election Day, vote counts, certification and inauguration are published dates. Data releases and central bank meetings can fall on the same days.
• Expect wider moves and gaps. Results can arrive when some markets are closed, so prices can open away from the previous close.
• Size positions for the worst case. Leverage magnifies losses as well as gains, and a stop-loss order is not a guarantee against gaps.
• Separate the signal from the noise. A one-day move may reflect oil or inflation news rather than the vote.
• Write the plan before the event. Decide in advance how much you are willing to lose and what you will do if prices move against you.
• Use history for context only. Average figures hide wide ranges, as the first-day table above shows.

A demo account lets you test an approach with virtual funds. Demo results do not guarantee live results, but they are a low-cost way to learn how a platform behaves in fast markets.

Final verdict

Post election stock market performance has been mixed on the first day and more constructive over longer windows, but never uniform. The S&P 500 rose on the first day after only 10 of 25 presidential elections since 1928, was higher between Election Day and inauguration in about 80% of periods since 1984, and showed no obvious pattern at 12 months or four years. The latest session, on 4 November 2026, brought a gain of about 3% for the Dow and 1.58% for the S&P 500, according to CNN, alongside lower oil and yields and a weaker dollar.

The verdict is that elections matter mainly through expectations, and the first-day move is one data point among many. Inflation, interest rates, earnings, oil and geopolitics have often mattered as much as the result, and the two election-to-inauguration periods that ended lower, 2000 and 2008, coincided with severe economic stress. Past data gives context for managing risk around a scheduled event. It does not forecast the next result or market move, and leverage can magnify losses as well as gains.

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Frequently asked questions

How does the stock market usually react the day after a US presidential election?

There is no usual reaction. The S&P 500 rose on the first day after 10 of 25 presidential elections since 1928, according to Bloomberg and YCharts data published by the Motley Fool. Recent examples range from a fall of 5.3% in 2008 and 2.4% in 2012 to gains of 2.2% in 2020 and 2.5% in 2024.

Does the stock market usually rise between Election Day and inauguration?

In most past periods it has. Horizon Investments found stocks were positive about 80% of the time since 1984, with the 2000 and 2008 periods the only declines, and CNBC reported a median S&P 500 return of 3.7% since 1952. Both describe the past, use different start dates and do not indicate what the next period will bring.

Does the first-day move after an election predict the next four years?

The evidence says it has not been a strong predictor. After the 15 elections that began with a first-day fall, the S&P 500 gained over four years in 12, according to the Motley Fool. Morningstar’s analysis of 24 elections, published by NBC News and CNBC, found no obvious pattern in the 12-month returns.

How did US stocks move after the 2026 midterm elections?

On Wednesday 4 November 2026, CNN reported that the Dow rose 1,569 points, or about 3%, its biggest gain after a midterm election since 1982 according to CFRA Research. The S&P 500 rose 1.58% and the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.44%. Oil fell and the dollar weakened. This is one session and does not indicate later moves.

Does it matter which party wins for the stock market?

Studies disagree and samples are small. YCharts data, found the best annualised S&P 500 returns under a divided Congress, but each arrangement has occurred only a few times. The index has generally posted positive returns regardless of which party held office, so party control alone is not a reliable guide.

Sources

• Associated Press via ABC News, How major US stock indexes fared Wednesday, 11/6/2024
• Associated Press via KTAR, How major US stock indexes fared Wednesday 11/9/2022
• Associated Press via The Washington Times, How major US stock indexes fared Wednesday, 4 November 2020
• Fortune, Wall Street Welcomes Midterm Election Results with a Broad-Based Stock Rally, 7 November 2018
• CNN via KAKE, Dow posts best post-midterm elections day in 44 years as Democrats take control of Congress, 4 November 2026
• The Motley Fool, Stock Market Today, 4 November 2026
• The Motley Fool, Stocks Soared on Trump’s Victory. History Says This Is What Happens Next., 18 November 2024
• Advisor Perspectives, Who Are The Real Election Winners? (Horizon Investments), November 2024
• CNBC, Why the postelection market bump probably means nothing, 11 November 2016
• NBC News, What investors can learn from the S&P’s performance after presidential elections since 1928 (Morningstar Direct)
• National Archives, Electoral College key dates

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