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A key measure of US producer prices unexpectedly fell for the first time in more than two years, mainly reflecting a drop in energy costs. A similar result to the consumer prices report on Wednesday, both the overall and core figures were softer than forecast. However, inflation remains stubbornly high and will likely keep the Fed on a hawkish path to curb it.
The July Consumer Price Index (CPI) brought a sigh of relief to those with unstoppable inflation concerns, and swaps are now suggesting a move of 50 basis points as more likely in September than a repeat of the 75 bps increases that officials opted to implement at their past two meetings. In fact, the CPI surprise is just one piece of the intricate puzzle officials are playing with, as food prices in the US soared the most in July since 1979, keeping the cost of living painfully high even as lower gasoline costs offered some relief to consumers.
Stocks retreated on Tuesday, as a downbeat outlook from a giant chipmaker, Micron, added to recession fears. Investors were unwilling to make any risky moves before Wednesday’s pivotal inflation reading, which is forecasted to cool a bit while remaining at high levels.
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