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12

Mar 2026

在霍尔木兹局势紧张之际，美国能源部长预计动用战略石油储备（SPR）互换释放可缓解短期原油供应中断

霍尔木兹风险升温！美国或动用SPR但倾向“互换”借油、后补回以减纳税人成本。赖特称可撑数周扰动，护航或月底前启动，WTI飙5.1%。

12

Mar 2026

道明证券（TD Securities）Ghali称，中国强劲银需求抵消西方谨慎情绪，伦敦流动性亦改善

白银市场分裂加剧：上海套利与工业用银推升中国买盘，西方因伊朗冲突转谨慎、ETF大撤退；伦敦租借利率回落示供应改善，短线或陷区间震荡。

12

Mar 2026

道明证券称，受能源通胀影响，欧洲央行官员立场更偏鹰派，预计仅在2026年末加息一次

欧元区能源推升通胀，ECB官员转鹰，市场从降息转押2026年加息40bp。然传导滞后或令定价超前，交易者可考虑2026互换收固定，警惕财政刺激变数。

12

Mar 2026

美元/日元维持在年内高位附近约158.90，地缘政治紧张局势与美联储政策忧虑笼罩，走势持稳

USD/JPY守在158.90，强美元撑住但159–160阻力在前。中东冲突推高油价添通胀变数，下周联储与日央行会议引爆波动；避险买盘或令日元急升。

12

Mar 2026

美国劳工部报告称，截至3月7日当周，新申领失业救济人数降至21.3万人

美国初请失业金降至21.3万、优于预期，续请回落至185万，4周均值走低；美元指数升至99.50。就业与工资牵动通胀与美联储政策走向。

12

Mar 2026

1月，美国商品与服务贸易逆差收窄至545亿美元，优于市场预期的666亿美元

贸易逆差意外收窄至-545亿美元，美元或再走强！强数据压降息预期，利好做多美元与卖SOFR；欧弱美强分化延续，波动或升温。

12

Mar 2026

1月，美国商品贸易逆差收窄至818亿美元，较此前的993亿美元有所改善

美国1月商品贸易逆差从-993亿缩至-818亿，缩减175亿，美元供给或降并获支撑；就业强、通胀高压低降息预期，可用期权布局强美元与工业板块。

12

Mar 2026

美国续领失业救济人数符合预期，为185万人；截至2月下旬的最新数据平淡无惊喜

美国续领失业金人数2月27日持平185万，但3月初升至198万超预期，凸显就业转弱；降息预期升温、VIX走高，期权与国债期货或成对冲机会。

12

Mar 2026

美国建筑许可从增长4.3%转为下滑5.4%，显示先前增长势头急转直下

美国1月建筑许可环比从+4.3%急转至-5.4%：住房与建筑动能降温的领先警讯。叠加就业趋缓，市场押注美联储按兵不动，二季度加息概率跌破30%。

12

Mar 2026

美国1月建筑许可不及预期，按月报137.6万，低于预期的141万

美国1月建筑许可137.6万低于预期141万，房市受高利率拖累。Fed陷两难，市场押注转鸽、收益率回落；建商股承压，VIX看涨期权可对冲波动。

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