Live Updates

12

Mar 2026

伊朗领袖莫吉塔巴·哈梅内伊呼吁封锁霍尔木兹海峡，誓言持续攻击美军基地，并承诺为殉难者报复

莫杰塔巴·哈梅内伊首发强硬声明：持续报复、或推动长期封锁霍尔木兹海峡。原油面临三位数冲击，股市承压，VIX或飙；油价看涨、指数保护性看跌成对冲关键。

12

Mar 2026

在冲突引发的供应忧虑持续下，WTI突破90美元，尽管计划释放储备且市场预期战争或仅短暂

油价还会继续高烧？WTI在释放4亿桶战略储备后仍稳守90美元上方；霍尔木兹海峡航运与供应恢复存疑，冲突致日产缺口达2,500万桶。

12

Mar 2026

特朗普称油价上涨有利美国，同时其首要任务仍是阻止伊朗获得核武器

特朗普称油价涨美国更赚，冲突容忍高油价。布油破110料续升。策略：多原油/能源期权，对冲标普Put与波动；航空运输承压，国防能源占优，美元或走强。

12

Mar 2026

交易员关注金宝汤（Campbell’s），因其股价正在测试30年支撑位，或将决定未来十年的走势

CPB 3月暴跌14%重返30年关键支撑20–23美元：月线守住或反弹看28–30并挑战下降趋势线；若失守20美元，恐打开更深跌势空间。

12

Mar 2026

欧元/美元连续第三个交易日下跌，美伊战争升级推升美元需求

欧元/美元连跌至1.1525！美伊战事推升避险美元与油价，通胀忧虑回潮。美国数据强劲、Fed降息预期降温，欧元区能源压力加剧，市场紧盯周五PCE。

12

Mar 2026

荷兰合作银行（Rabobank）简·福利：澳元/日元触及1990年以来最高水平，政策、风险情绪与加息因素考验走势

AUD/JPY飙至1990年以来新高，能源出口与RBA或下周加息成催化剂。惟地缘风险、波动飙升恐触发套利退潮、日元反扑；期权双向对冲成关键。

12

Mar 2026

野村预计欧洲央行将维持2.00%存款利率不变，避免对伊朗引发的通胀冲击作出反应

伊朗冲突升温、油价飙破95美元！野村料ECB 3月19日按兵不动，存款利率维持2.00%；先观望实体经济与通胀预期，2026年HICP或升至2.5%，最快6月才可能加息两次。

12

Mar 2026

路透调查：经济学家预计英伦银行将在3月即将召开的会议上维持利率在3.75%不变

伊朗战争推高能源通胀，降息预期被打乱！路透调查称英央行3月料按兵不动，利率或更久维持高位；英镑波动与国债收益率成焦点。

12

Mar 2026

ING经济学家布热斯基（Brzeski）和比尔（Biehl）警告称，随着油价上涨冲击燃油支出，欧元区家庭购买力正被侵蚀

油价逼近每桶95美元重挫欧元区购买力：行驶里程已回常态，家庭燃油占比上升、信心探底。可选消费承压，欧股偏空，期权对冲指数与车零ETF。

12

Mar 2026

汇丰预计，全球与美国股市将受惠于人工智能、财政支出，以及周期性板块带动盈利动能增强

科技股回调后估值更合理，汇丰看好AI与财政支出带动2025美企盈利续强，建议全球/美股维持超配、布局周期与公用事业，并增配亚洲分散风险。

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