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14

Mar 2026

三菱日联金融集团（MUFG）分析师警告：伊朗冲突或扰乱霍尔木兹海峡原油运输，削弱亚洲货币并推升利率压力

伊朗冲突若阻断霍尔木兹海峡，亚洲恐首当其冲：90%运油流向亚洲。MUFG警告货币、利率承压，通胀与供应链风险升温，市场紧盯油价走向。

14

Mar 2026

克里斯·特纳表示，随着波动性上升，兰特多头仓位回吐；低通胀压力加剧，贵金属动能减弱

兰特多头正加速减仓：通胀由5.1%跳至5.8%、VIX破25引爆套息交易去杠杆；金铂涨势熄火、油价飙至95美元成逆风，USD/ZAR或上探17.25至17.75。

14

Mar 2026

贝克休斯数据显示，美国石油钻机数量增加1座，从411座升至412座

油价坚挺但美国钻井平台仅增1座至412，油企资本纪律未松；库存降幅不及预期、OPEC+或按兵不动，供应偏充足，油价料区间震荡，卖波动率更吃香。

13

Mar 2026

WTI徘徊在95.30美元附近持稳，随着释出战略储备缓解供应担忧，中东紧张局势仍在持续

WTI徘徊95美元，中东局势牵动油价。澳洲、日本联动G7与IEA释储“托底”逾4亿桶，但若霍尔木兹海峡封锁延续，供应缺口难补。

13

Mar 2026

金价连续第二周下跌，油价上涨加剧通胀担忧，推升加息预期

油价飙升、霍尔木兹近乎封锁引爆通胀重估：金价周五下跌，连两周走低。市场削减降息押注、美元与收益率走强，XAU/USD守5,040，或下探5,000心理关口。

13

Mar 2026

纽约梅隆银行 iFlow 数据显示避险情绪升温：买入 G10/欧元区债券、抛售新兴市场；印度卢比/欧元资金流出，人民币/南非兰特需求上升

iFlow情绪跌至-0.088，风险厌恶升温：资金涌入G10/欧元区政府债、抛新兴主权债；外汇分化，EUR/INR流出，CNY/ZAR受捧。策略：偏防御、用期权控回撤。

13

Mar 2026

英国NIESR三个月GDP估算值2月维持在0.3%，显示没有变化

英国GDP三个月仅增0.3%续疲软，通胀降温但信心低迷，料英央行按兵不动。富时波动偏低宜卖波动率；英镑承压可买GBP/USD认沽，对冲并布局防御板块。

13

Mar 2026

美元指数逼近四个月高位，银价跌破81美元，尽管油价反弹

白银连跌三日，周挫近3%至80.16美元；美元指数升至四个月高位、美债收益率走高打压金属。通胀降温推升降息预期，关注83/86阻力与78/74支撑。

13

Mar 2026

避险情绪提振美元，英镑兑美元连跌四个交易日，触及12月以来最低水平

英镑/美元跌至1.3240、三个月新低，美元避险与油价推升通胀夹击。联储点阵图偏鹰、英银或鸽派按兵不动，政策分化下看跌期权锁定1.3200下行机会。

13

Mar 2026

2月俄罗斯月度CPI上涨0.7%，高于经济学家预测的0.6%

俄罗斯2月CPI环比升0.7%超预期，通胀顽固锁定“高利率更久”。国债收益率上扬、卢布获撑，短期降息押注需降温，股市面临融资成本压力。

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