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Live Updates

17

Mar 2026

丰业银行认为，尽管德国ZEW数据疲弱，收益率利差与情绪改善仍将推动欧元/美元温和走高

欧元兑美元周二续升：情绪压过疲弱德国ZEW。市场紧盯美2年收益率或下行、利差收窄，期权仍偏防欧元走弱，反弹更像回补地缘跌幅。

17

Mar 2026

接近1.3350，英镑/美元维持看涨，交易员在美联储与英伦银行决议前回避美元

英镑/美元逼近1.3350连涨，市场屏息美联储与英央行决议；中东战事推高油价拖延降息。技术面守1.3300上方，阻力1.3360/1.3400，支撑1.3299。

17

Mar 2026

道明证券预计澳元走强：贸易利好与养老基金对冲需求抵消地缘政治风险，澳洲央行投票分歧后

澳元曾靠RBA紧缩与LNG利多领跑G10，如今转入数据依赖暂停、贸易条件降温，0.69变阻力。可用AUD/USD看跌价差瞄0.66，并继续做空AUD/CAD。

17

Mar 2026

英英（INGING）策略师Ewa Manthey表示，Alba和Qatalum减产收紧海湾地区铝供应，影响区域产量

海湾铝供应警报拉响：Alba减产19%、Qatalum仅60%负荷，氧化铝库存仅3–4周。若霍尔木兹受阻延续，LME铝价或冲破4000美元/吨。交易者可布局期货或看涨期权。

17

Mar 2026

德国商业银行卡斯滕·弗里奇表示，供应中断、储备变化与需求转移或将随着时间推移重塑原油供需平衡

霍尔木兹封锁重演70年代油危机？IEA称史上最大缺口：海湾日产降逾800万桶，凝析油与NGL再少200万；OECD战储仅能撑约三个月。

17

Mar 2026

交易员令英镑/日元维持稳定，静待英央行与日本央行利率决议，数据清淡令波动受限

GBP/JPY徘徊212待英日央行决议。利差撑英镑、油价升推通胀预期；技术现看跌旗。破211恐探209/204，破213看215；期权用call或跨式捕波动。

17

Mar 2026

加拿大丰业银行策略师称美元/加元仍维持区间波动；油价走强与收益率利差收窄支撑加元

丰业银行称加元被低估：USD/CAD 1.37遇阻，公允约1.34中段。聚焦美联储与加央行；区间料1.3650-1.3720，可卖波动铁鹰或以看跌价差押注回归。

17

Mar 2026

道明证券丹尼尔·加利警告：美国两年期国债收益率上升改变宏观环境，黄金面临政策逆风

美债2年期收益率破位上行抬高持金机会成本，“货币贬值交易”挤拥且机构净减仓。M2增速回落、降息预期降温、央行买盘放缓，黄金支撑正松动。

17

Mar 2026

2月美国待完成房屋销售同比降幅从此前的-0.4%扩大至-0.8%

美国2月待完成房屋销售按年跌0.8%创更弱信号：高房贷利率压抑需求，二手房或转淡；市场押注Q3降息升温。策略留意曲线走平，ITB/XHB偏空，考虑买Put对冲。

17

Mar 2026

德意志银行称伊朗冲突将市场与油价挂钩、支撑美元；亚洲货币面临最大承压风险

伊朗冲突牵动油价飙升，美元因避险与增长转弱获撑；亚洲能源进口成本攀升成最大受害者。关注霍尔木兹风险、财政刺激与美联储预期，波动率策略或更优。

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