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Live Updates

20

Mar 2026

XAG/USD：银价在欧洲时段徘徊于72.80美元附近，在周四受美元走软反弹后保持稳定

银价72.8美元横盘，美元走弱难掩三周连跌风险。中东冲突推油价与通胀，央行示意利率高位更久；技术跌破均线，偏空与买波动策略受关注。

20

Mar 2026

马赫卢夫称欧洲央行缺乏进一步收紧倾向，将逐次议息会议决定利率、无固定路径

欧洲央行强调利率无预设路线、逐次会议看数据，基准仍含两次加息。如今通胀回落、增长疲弱，市场焦点转向何时降息；欧元波动或升，可用期权布局。

20

Mar 2026

1月欧元区经季节调整后的贸易顺差从116亿欧元增至121亿欧元

欧元区1月经季调贸易顺差升至121亿欧元，欧元偏正面。出口韧性叠加PMI续扩张，推升短期限EUR/USD看涨与EURO STOXX 50价差关注，Euribor降息预期或下调。

20

Mar 2026

1月，欧元区未经季节性调整的贸易顺差录得-19亿欧元，低于预期的128亿欧元

欧元区1月贸易差额爆冷转负：逆差-19亿欧元，远逊预期顺差+128亿。出口需求走弱压欧元，汽车制造承压；策略关注EUR/USD看跌期权、Euro Stoxx 50防守对冲与ECB偏鸽利率交易。

20

Mar 2026

意大利1月全球贸易余额达10.89亿欧元，低于预期的56亿欧元

意大利1月贸易顺差仅10.89亿欧元，远逊预期56亿，出口动能转弱警报拉响。欧元与意股或承压：可关注EUR/USD做空、买入FTSE MIB及欧元看跌期权。

20

Mar 2026

意大利对欧盟贸易逆差收窄至11.38亿欧元，较1月前值24.47亿欧元改善

意大利1月对欧盟贸易赤字大幅收窄至€-11.38亿，工业产出回升同步释放利好。欧元、富时MIB与BTP或受撑，但核心通胀2.5%令ECB决策仍存变数。

20

Mar 2026

1月，欧元区未经季节调整的经常账户从前值346亿欧元降至130亿欧元

欧元区1月经常账户盈余骤降至130亿欧元，叠加ZEW与工业生产转弱，欧元偏利空；EUR/USD或下探1.0650，考虑买入看跌或做多波动率策略。

20

Mar 2026

1月，经季节调整后欧元区经常账户盈余达379亿欧元，远超预期的172亿欧元

欧元区1月经常账户顺差飙至379亿欧元，远超预期172亿，凸显出口韧性与欧元基本面利好。EUR/USD或冲1.09，期权成交升温，利好欧洲股市与ECB按兵不动。

20

Mar 2026

三菱日联金融集团（MUFG）德里克·哈尔彭尼警告：布伦特油价跌破105美元或难持续，冲突仍抬升上行风险

油价跌破105美元是情绪回暖非需求转弱；海上储油与美库存齐降、OPEC+延长减产，供应仍紧。想抓反弹？回调或成布局看涨策略良机。

20

Mar 2026

ING策略师观察到美元走弱，因欧洲央行与英伦银行的鹰派立场盖过鲍威尔的最新言论

美元24小时走弱：欧央行、英央行鹰派抢镜，鲍威尔影响淡；油价高企与战局谨慎乐观推波，商品主导汇市。关键看冲突降温与霍尔木兹重开。

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