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Live Updates

24

Mar 2026

LME铜价在周一反弹后回落，中国买家在美伊紧张局势缓和下看好价值入场

LME铜价回吐涨幅跌约1%，因伊朗谈判否认引发避险。本月累跌约10%触发中国买盘回流，Mysteel称库存大减7.87万吨、现货需求转强。

24

Mar 2026

美国第四季度单位劳动力成本为4.4%，高于市场预测的3.3%

美国第四季单位劳动力成本飙4.4%远超预期3.3%，通胀压力未降温，年中降息添变数；利率更高更久推升VIX与美元，投资者宜防守、做多美元对日元欧元。

24

Mar 2026

欧元/英镑维持在0.8650附近，投资者消化欧元区及英国PMI数据疲软，暗示经济增长放缓

EUR/GBP守0.8650但暗流涌动：欧英PMI齐弱、能源与供应链推升成本，滞胀风险回归。关注ECB讲话与英国通胀；期权低波动或宜布局跨式/宽跨式。

24

Mar 2026

3月上旬，据报美国私营企业在连续四周内平均每周新增就业1万人，NER Pulse数据显示

美国私营招聘3月初回升：四周周均新增约1万岗位。就业增、薪资放缓与CPI偏高交织，市场押注非农前波动率；以SPX平值跨式或QQQ期权控风险捉机会。

24

Mar 2026

新西兰央行行长安娜·布雷曼警告：中东冲突或将推高通胀，新西兰经济增长势头恐放缓

中东冲突料短期推高新西兰通胀、拖累增长；RBNZ偏鸽或先按兵不动，关注通胀固化与金融稳定。纽元恐跑输，NZD/USD可用期权看跌兼做多波动。

24

Mar 2026

欧洲央行决策者奥拉夫·斯莱彭警告：能源价格上涨或比2022年危机期间更快渗透至整个经济

油气飙涨或比2022更快引爆欧元区通胀！ECB警告“第二轮效应”待4月数据确认。欧元淡定，但隐波或被低估，期权与利率仓位须防鹰派风险。

24

Mar 2026

2月28日，美国ADP四周平均就业变动从9,000人上升至10,000人

ADP四周均值回升至1万，暗示就业韧性。通胀2.8%、NFP强劲令Fed降息预期或反转；留意利率与VIX错价，期权对冲与板块配对捕捉机会。

24

Mar 2026

法兴银行认为欧元/匈牙利福林受油价与政治因素驱动，料在383–396区间盘整，383/381支撑位至关重要

福林反弹后转入盘整，383/381成多空分水岭。油价每涨10%推升CPI 0.3–0.4个百分点；选举与油市或引爆波动，EUR/HUF 或冲420或回370。

24

Mar 2026

3月，墨西哥上半月核心通胀符合预期，上涨0.22%

墨西哥3月上半月核心通胀0.22%符预期，通胀稳定支撑Banxico谨慎降息。利差交易续挺比索，USD/MXN料区间震荡、难破17.50；隐波或回落，卖MXN期权更吸引。

24

Mar 2026

墨西哥3月上半月通胀率达0.62%，大幅高于0.37%的预测值

墨西哥3月上半月通胀0.62%爆冷高于预期，强化Banxico“高利率更久”叙事，提振比索；若后续再超预期，降息定价或逆转，USD/MXN或下探17.20。

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