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Live Updates

27

Mar 2026

在特朗普将伊朗期限延长至4月6日后，油价企稳；随着压力缓解，仍保留地缘政治风险溢价

特朗普延长伊朗能源期限令油价暂稳，但地缘政治溢价未退。800万桶/日停摆、海湾运输脆弱，加上澳洲LNG减产，油气或再急涨，交易员宜防上冲。

27

Mar 2026

西班牙全年HICP通胀率低于预期，放缓至3.3%，低于预估的3.9%

西班牙3月HICP同比仅3.3%爆冷低预期，向ECB释放强鸽派信号，6月降息押注升温；利率可用EURIBOR/互换收固布局，欧股偏多，欧元或转弱。

27

Mar 2026

星展分析师称，冲突引发的避险资金流入及油价走高，已令美元更广泛的跌势暂告暂停

美元跌势暂歇：避险需求与油价托底，但美联储独立性、财政可持续性与盟友裂痕削弱储备地位。操作上可买DXY价外沽、押EUR/USD涨、做空USD/JPY。

27

Mar 2026

经历四个交易日连跌后，澳元/日元回升至110.20附近，但仍处于下降通道内偏空走势

AUD/JPY 四连跌后反弹至110.20，但仍处下降通道偏空；下看109.80/109.67、再探107.73，上阻111/112.10。日央行转鹰、澳洲联储按兵不动，升势受限。

27

Mar 2026

在抛售潮中，企业齐跌；优质股凭基本面脱颖而出，而非仅因股价走弱

抛售不等于基本面崩坏：用市值、回撤、增长、利润率、现金流与低负债筛出抗跌优质股，再守估值纪律；波动升温时可卖出认沽/用期权对冲，把恐慌变机会。

27

Mar 2026

丹斯克预计挪威央行将以鹰派姿态维持利率在4.00%，支撑挪威克朗，并预测未来将加息两次、2027年开始降息

挪威央行按兵不动但转鹰，上调利率路径，暗示6月、9月各加息25bp；与欧央行分化扩大利差，EUR/NOK或再探11.10，留意股市与油价风险。

27

Mar 2026

投资者预计伊朗冲突将长期化，原油在欧洲收复早前跌幅，WTI升破93.50美元

WTI重返93.50美元上方，两日连涨，市场押注伊朗冲突难速终结、霍尔木兹风险未解，期权押注2026年逼近100美元；隐波飙升，价差策略更稳健。

27

Mar 2026

渣打经济学家认为，美国有能力应对油价飙升，避免重演1970年代式停滞性通胀风险

油价飙升会否重演70年代滞胀？渣打指美国能源负担已降、薪资压力缓和，冲击主要推高总体通胀一次性至约3.1%，核心与GDP外溢有限，美联储料继续观望。

27

Mar 2026

英国零售销售数据公布后，英镑/日元持稳于213.00上方；欧洲早盘反弹后，干预担忧限制进一步上行

英镑/日元先跌后弹，守在213附近。英国零售胜预期、BoE偏鹰，BoJ收紧令政策趋同。隐波回落可卖短跨式；190支撑、193.5阻力，警惕日圆干预传闻。

27

Mar 2026

英国零售销售数据出炉后，英镑/美元在欧洲早盘企稳于1.3330附近，结束三连跌

英镑/美元止跌回稳至1.3330，英国零售销售优于预期却难掩信心转弱。美元受通胀与美联储偏鹰牵动，后市或压英镑，警惕下探1.2700。

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