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Live Updates

27

Mar 2026

德国商业银行克雷默表示，随着能源通胀上升，欧洲央行可能会加息一次，随后通胀将趋缓

中东战事推升能源通胀，德国商业银行料ECB最多再加一次息（4月或6月）后暂停；市场却押近三次偏激进，增长下修至2026年0.6%，欧元或承压。

27

Mar 2026

BBH 的 Elias Haddad 表示，随着美元/日元逼近 160，日本官员加大口头干预力度，或为一道可能的“红线”

美元/日元逼近160触发日本更强口头警告，市场押注干预在即；但利差与能源进口推升美元需求，日元结构性偏弱，波动率飙升带来期权机会。

27

Mar 2026

道明证券指出，英国2月零售销售超出预期；尽管受天气影响出现疲软，但仍维持连续三个月的上升趋势

英国2月零售销售按月跌0.4%却优于预期，3m/3m仍升0.7%显韧性；央行或维持谨慎不急降息。中东冲突推高油价，英镑料区间震荡，期权策略成焦点。

27

Mar 2026

黑田告诉《朝日新闻》，日本央行应继续推进货币政策正常化，不应暂停

黑田放话：日银别停正常化，4月加息属顺势；若美伊开战推高能源通胀，升息或更快。料2027利率达1.5%，日圆反应有限。

27

Mar 2026

诺德亚银行的冯·格里希：冲突阴影下，收益率飙升、股市走弱，油价仍低于近期高位

中东战事未缓，油价三周不创新高但波动升温，德债收益率攀高、股市承压。ECB警惕能源冲击非线性推升通胀。投资者宜用原油期权跨式对冲爆发风险。

27

Mar 2026

ING分析师称，铜价在上涨后趋稳，随着伊朗最后期限获延长缓解风险情绪，铜价接近本月首次实现周度上涨

铜价周五反弹，特朗普延长伊朗协议期限提振情绪，有望录月内首周涨；但地缘风险与需求转弱令金属仍偏弱。策略上避期货，偏好跨式/宽跨式捕波动，兼顾看跌价差与看涨对冲。

27

Mar 2026

商业银行预计2026年欧元区增长走弱、欧洲央行加息次数减少、美联储降息次数增加，美元前景转软

中德意志银行：中东战事拖累，欧元区2026增长砍至0.6%，ECB加息或少于期货；Fed降息更晚。EUR/USD现1.0785偏弱，1.21目标恐延后。

27

Mar 2026

诺迪亚银行的简·冯·格里希表示，中东能源价格上涨为欧洲央行利率前景蒙上阴影，4月加息虽仍有可能但为时尚早

中东冲突推升油价，令欧洲央行利率走向更难猜。市场一度押注4月加息25bp概率飙至70%+，但ECB或等6月新预测、观察二轮效应再动。

27

Mar 2026

金价在欧洲时段守住涨幅，但美元需求回升及鹰派央行限制进一步上行

黄金欧洲盘小涨却受强美元压制；美伊“标题风险”反而推美元避险。油价高企推升通胀，市场押注美联储更鹰、收益率走高，金价偏空。关注4,380/4,120支撑与4,630/4,820阻力。

27

Mar 2026

帕察利德斯称，在欧洲央行掌握足够信息前，政策制定者应避免仓促调整货币政策

欧央行委员帕察利德斯放话：别急动利率，先等更多数据。通胀仍在2.4%高位、增长仅0.1%更棘手，欧元或续陷区间震荡。

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