Live Updates

31

Mar 2026

渣打称日本央行通胀已达标；美元/日元逼近160，更早加息可能性升温

美元/日元逼近160之际，BoJ潜在通胀达标、产出缺口转正，加息或早于渣打Q3预期。掉期仍押注2026前两次加息，门槛高；波动与干预风险升温。

31

Mar 2026

荷兰合作银行Michael Every称，澳洲联储会议纪要提及中东局势不确定性，在油价推升通胀风险下令利率前景蒙上阴影

中东冲突推高油价，RBA坦言利率前景难测：若油价近100美元，整体CPI或冲至5%。加息与滞胀担忧并存，利率/澳元波动策略成焦点。

31

Mar 2026

德国联邦统计局：2月德国零售销售按月下跌0.6%，与预期增长0.2%相悖

德国2月零售销售环比再跌0.6%、远逊预期，1月下修更差。欧元短线淡定但增长阴霾加深，ECB或更鸽；交易员可用EUR/USD看跌期权对冲。

31

Mar 2026

美元/加元连续第七个交易日上涨，2026年触及1.3945后企稳于1.3920上方

美元兑加元连涨七天，守稳1.3920、逼近1.3945高位。特朗普或尽快结束伊朗行动，避险降温拖累美元指数；鲍威尔偏鸽、收益率回落。关注霍尔木兹风险。

31

Mar 2026

丹斯克银行预计日本通胀将上升，提高日本央行4月加息的前景

东京3月核心CPI仅升1.7%逊预期，补贴压低能源。然日元弱油价高或推通胀，市场押注BOJ 4月加息70%；期权波动走高，关注日元转强与日经回调风险。

31

Mar 2026

美元/加元连续第七个交易日走高，2026年触及1.3945后稳守1.3920上方

美元兑加元连涨7天，徘徊1.3920上方。特朗普或尽快结束伊朗行动提振风险偏好、削弱避险美元；鲍威尔称通胀受控致美债收益率下滑。

31

Mar 2026

丹斯克银行预计日本通胀将上升，提升日本央行4月加息前景

东京核心CPI意外降温，但油价与弱日元或再推升通胀；市场押注日央行4月加息70%。交易上关注USD/JPY期权与曲线变陡，日经需对冲。

31

Mar 2026

2月德国零售销售按月下滑0.6%，不及预期的0.2%增长

德国2月零售意外跌0.6%，消费与信心同步转弱，德国Q1收缩风险升温。DAX或回调、欧元承压；关注看跌期权与做空EUR/USD机会。

31

Mar 2026

德国2月年度零售销售增长0.7%，低于预期的1%，显示需求趋软

德国2月零售年增仅0.7%逊预期，暗示消费降温将拖累欧元区增长与情绪；或促欧央行转鸽压低欧元、利多Bund与出口股，冲击可选消费板块。

31

Mar 2026

2月德国月度进口价格指数超预期，上涨0.3%，高于预测的0.2%

德国2月进口价按月升0.3%高于预期，通胀降温慢：ECB或更鹰，二季大降息机率降，欧元或走强；股市承压、波动升，关注CPI与期权对冲。

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