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Live Updates

6

Apr 2026

MUFG的陈洛伊德称：霍尔木兹海峡若受扰，或推高通胀、拖累增长，并令韩元、菲律宾比索和泰铢承压

霍尔木兹海峡若持续中断，亚洲恐陷通胀与经常账户双压、货币分化加剧：看弱KRW/PHP/THB；CNY更稳、MYR或受惠油气出口。策略：空弱币对冲USD，关注多MYR/空THB。

6

Apr 2026

在美伊和平谈判之际，欧元/英镑维持看跌、低于0.8750；均线收敛提供支撑，英镑走强

停火谈判降温中东冲突，风险偏好回升压低EUR/GBP至0.8720。英镑因通胀顽固、降息更慢占优；关注0.8686支撑与0.875阻力，期权双向布局。

6

Apr 2026

三菱日联银行（MUFG）劳埃德·陈警告：霍尔木兹海峡中断恐推高通胀、打击增长，并令韩元、菲律宾比索与泰铢走弱

霍尔木兹海峡若断供，亚洲或迎通胀飙升、经常账户走弱、增长受挫！韩元菲索泰铢最脆；人民币凭自给与储备更稳，马币或随势获支撑。

6

Apr 2026

外交缓和美伊战争提振风险情绪，英镑走强，欧元/英镑仍守在0.8750下方

停火曙光点燃风险偏好，英镑走强压制欧元，EUR/GBP回落至0.8720。技术面守0.8686支撑；英欧央行政策分歧仍主导，反弹宜逢高卖出。

6

Apr 2026

道明证券预计美国3月ISM服务业指数将回落，伊朗局势紧张打击市场情绪；就业分项再度收缩

伊朗局势不确定性或拖累美国3月ISM服务业指数回落至54.2，就业恐转缩。市场押注联储更鸽，利率与VIX衍生品、消费运输板块或现机会。

6

Apr 2026

德国商业银行称3月通胀放缓至3.5%，但在印尼盾走弱、风险上升之际，印尼央行仍保持警惕

印尼3月CPI回落至3.5%重返目标，但中东冲突恐推高运费与供应链风险。通胀降温之际，印尼盾走弱破17,000，央行料4月维持4.75%偏鹰。

6

Apr 2026

道明证券预计3月美国ISM非制造业指数将放缓至54.2，伊朗局势不确定性打压市场情绪

地缘政治风险升温下，TD Securities料美国3月ISM服务业指数回落至54.2，就业分项或重陷收缩；惟伊朗冲突扰乱供应链，交货时间拉长或成指数上行变数。

6

Apr 2026

德国商业银行称，随着印尼盾走弱，印尼央行（BI）趋于谨慎；3月通胀放缓，但冲突引发的运费成本或上升

印尼3月CPI回落至3.5%重返央行目标区间，但BI因印尼盾承压转趋谨慎、否定短期降息。中东冲突或推升运费；交易宜押注USD/IDR波动。

6

Apr 2026

欧洲交易时段，英镑兑美元回升，上涨0.45%至约1.3255

英镑兑美元随风险偏好回升走强，美元避险降温；但美国数据撑美元、压制英镑。交易员可留意45天内1.3000看涨与跨式，押注贸易谈判引爆波动。

6

Apr 2026

适度和平方案乐观情绪提振英镑兑日元，但在接近211.45阻力位附近的回升受阻

停火框架提振风险偏好，GBP/JPY上扬但受阻211.45。避险美元遭抛售、英镑获撑；RSI与MACD偏多，突破或指向212.30/212.55，支撑210.35与209.64。

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