Live Updates

29

Aug 2026

韩国央行暗示收紧步伐放缓，韩元升势消退、美元兑韩元转入区间盘整

韩国央行两连加息至3.0%并前置紧缩，六个月利率中位3.25%示仍有加息空间；但后续或放缓并暂停。韩元升值12%后趋盘整，USD/KRW料1,360-1,400区间震荡。

29

Aug 2026

菲律宾央行将政策利率上调至5.0%，比索表现落后于东盟同业，紧缩倾向仍在延续

菲律宾央行加息至5%稳汇控通胀，3Q26比索独跌0.8%显著跑输。市场押注或再加息，建议以短期期权、远期及掉期付固定布局波动与收益率上行。

29

Aug 2026

星展银行预计马来西亚国家银行将把隔夜政策利率维持在2.75%，通胀令货币政策保持中性

【押注落空？】星展料BNM9月3日维持OPR2.75%不变；7月通胀1.8%温和且增长约5%，收紧动力弱。建议收固定掉期、做多MGS期货。

29

Aug 2026

墨西哥比索走软，沃什言论推升美元并重塑加息预期定价

沃什杰克逊霍尔鹰派发声引爆利率再定价：美元指数走强，USD/MXN回升至17.04；套息交易仍压制上行，关注17.31阻力与美非农等数据波动。

29

Aug 2026

标普500指数面临9月季节性拖累，7,638点支撑位凸显7,120点关键关注位

警惕“九月魔咒”：标普500长期季节性偏弱且中期选举年回撤放大。若失守7,638支撑，或加速下探7,100–7,200（200日均线附近）；建议以保护性看跌/熊市价差对冲。

29

Aug 2026

德国商业银行警示：随着中国贸易顺差扩大，弱势人民币倾向凸显，交易员押注进一步贬值

德商银行质疑人民币低估单一解释，指中国偏弱汇率、购金与“20%实际优势”推升出口：2019-25顺差扩至1.18万亿。贸易摩擦升温，建议买入USD/CNH看涨期权。

29

Aug 2026

英镑净空头头寸收窄，CFTC数据显示市场对英镑的看空押注减少

英国CFTC持仓提示英镑空头回补：投机净持仓由-54.6k升至-44.5k，净空收窄但未转多。通胀粘性与英美政策分化支撑做多期权与价差策略。

29

Aug 2026

CFTC数据显示：投机者扩大日元净空头，急剧反转风险上升

警惕空头挤压：CFTC显示日元非商业净头寸由-52.9K降至-63.3K，净空扩大10.4K；叠加通胀与潜在鹰派信号，反转敏感度上升，期权对冲优先。

29

Aug 2026

CFTC数据显示：标普500净投机头寸进一步转为更深度净空，降至-6.8万份合约

CFTC最新周报显示，标普500期指净投机持仓由-1.06万张骤降至-6.8万张，净空头显著加码，市场风险偏好降温，回撤压力抬升。

29

Aug 2026

CFTC数据显示：在原油价格区间震荡之际，石油投机资金小幅提高净多头敞口

CFTC显示原油非商业净持仓升至12.34万手，投机净多头温和回升但多头共识仍弱；需求承压、供给高位下，警惕地缘/OPEC+触发波动，宜中性波动率策略。

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