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13

Apr 2026

霍尔木兹紧张局势升温，避险需求推动美元/日元维持在159.70附近，小幅走高

霍尔木兹受阻推升油价与美元，USD/JPY逼近160；避险难救日元，日本能源进口风险加剧。警惕日本干预，期权布局顺势控亏、押注波动。

13

Apr 2026

伊朗紧张局势再起推升WTI至约95.70美元，涨5.90%；封锁忧虑抑制供应，仍低于100美元

油价飙至WTI 95.70美元，因霍尔木兹紧张、美军拦截船只，航线近停摆或“消失”1100万桶/日。未破100美元，后市或冲106或回90，波动率交易成焦点。

13

Apr 2026

英镑兑日元连续第六个交易日走强，油价走高削弱日元；交叉盘逼近214.87高位

油价飙升+中东封锁风险，日元再挨卖！英镑/日元连涨六日触及214.87新高；英日利差撑盘，但美元/日元逼近160，须防日本干预回撤。

13

Apr 2026

在特朗普宣布封锁伊朗港口后，美元企稳，在整体偏空氛围下从亚洲时段高位回落

特朗普宣布封锁伊朗港口，谈判破局引爆“油涨股债跌”。美元短线走强但DXY难破100。布油冲115、OVX飙；VIX跳升，谨慎卖波动并加强对冲。

13

Apr 2026

OCBC策略师警告：受惠于纽储行鹰派言论的纽元涨势或因增长前景疲弱而消退

纽元因RBNZ鹰派言论走强，市场押注年内近三次加息。OCBC指经济疲弱、通胀降温，料仅2026年第四季加息一次；油价升与纽元高贝塔风险或致回吐，或跑输澳元。

13

Apr 2026

渣打银行的巴德尔·阿尔·萨拉夫表示，霍尔木兹海峡受扰导致海湾出口下滑、产量被迫停摆，并加剧通胀担忧

霍尔木兹海峡近乎关闭致海湾原油出口骤降43%、日供给少1100万桶，油价飙至WTI 135美元。市场先交易通胀：做多近月原油与能源期权、押注高利率；再布局指数看跌与VIX、农产品多头。

13

Apr 2026

福利（Foley）称：在中东冲突之际，投机者重建美元多头仓位，并将美元视为首选避险货币

中东冲突+通胀顽固推迟降息，投机资金回补美元净多头破150亿美元却未及高点。风险偏好转弱时，美元避险或再升；期权策略可控风险布局上行。

13

Apr 2026

法国兴业银行经济学家称，欧元区第一季度经济活动走弱；德国工业表现滞后，预计德国经济按季增长0.1%

欧元区Q1数据逊预期、德国工业承压，但油价冲击影响有限。资产负债表稳健、AI与能源投资、德国财政刺激及房市企稳支撑；工资-通胀螺旋风险低，惟劳动力紧张或推升薪资压力。

13

Apr 2026

德意志银行称欧洲央行3月维持利率不变，预计再加息两次各25个基点，市场已计入存款利率中性水平为2%

欧洲央行3月按兵不动，存款利率2%仍属中性；德银料6月、9月各加25基点，市场已计入，年底或再升、紧缩66基点。增长降至0.5%，通胀看2.8%。德国财政或成支撑。

13

Apr 2026

INGING经济学家Virovacz与Taborsky表示，蒂萨获得超级多数席位缓解政策担忧，提振对欧盟关系改善的乐观情绪

匈牙利“Tisza超级多数”降政策不确定性，却难解欧盟资金僵局、预算重置或拖累福林。ING建议短期做空、EUR/HUF看涨冲400；同时用日历价差布局潜在欧元化利多反转。

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