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Jul 2026

美国能源信息署报告美国天然气库存增幅超预期，夏季需求风险隐现拖累期货价格

EIA周报显示截至6月26日当周美国天然气库存增87Bcf超预期，库存较五年均值高逾350Bcf，供给偏空致近月承压；关注高温与LNG出口支撑，建议期权跨式及卖近买冬日历价差。

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Jul 2026

欧元走强，疲弱美国非农就业数据削弱美联储加息预期，令美元承压

非农大幅不及预期引发联储利率定价下修，美元指数回落，EUR/USD 升至九日高位；但通胀黏性与欧央行转鸽或限制欧元续涨，期权策略可布局回落。

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Jul 2026

英国央行曼恩称或采取“激进”行动，服务业通胀黏性提高令降息押注更趋复杂

曼释放“积极行动”信号：若通胀预期失锚或再偏离2%目标，英银或更鹰派维持高利率更久，乃至加息；下半年数据成关键，支撑英镑与利率策略重定价。

2

Jul 2026

泰国步入2026年第二季度基础更趋稳固，出口提振增长前景，泰国央行维持政策利率于1.00%不变

出口与科技投资托底泰国经济，内需仍弱。央行维持政策利率1.00%并上修2026年GDP至2.3%。供给驱动通胀抬升但核心受控，泰铢区间震荡，建议卖波动率。

2

Jul 2026

辛特拉会议释放信号：各国央行正从前瞻性指引转向以数据为导向的框架指引

辛特拉信号显示央行沟通或由前瞻指引转向AI大数据驱动的“框架指引”，以9—12个月实时数据为锚并重估通胀口径；政策再校准或抬升波动，促衍生品定价与策略重构。

2

Jul 2026

美国工厂订单降幅小于预期，非农就业报告发布前美联储维持观望立场

美国5月工厂订单环比降1.3%优于预期，释放“降温非坍塌”信号；市场聚焦6月非农触发再定价，联储或观望，VIX或抬升，波动率策略受益。

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