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2

Jul 2026

美国4周期国库券收益率回落至3.605%，市场计入美联储降息预期提前

美国4周期国库券中标利率降至3.605%，短端融资成本趋稳；市场边际下调收益率，强化7月FOMC降息预期，利多利率敏感股与波动率下行，关注非农风险。

2

Jul 2026

德国商业银行认为，美国就业数据走软将促使美联储维持利率不变直至2026年

就业与通胀同步降温成政策转向信号：德商行称6月非农不及预期且前值下修、油价回落与核心CPI趋稳，削弱7月加息理由，预计联邦基金利率4.75%-5.00%维持至2026年。

2

Jul 2026

印尼金融市场持稳：油价回落提振印尼盾，外资债券流入增加

油价回落促印尼外汇与本币债趋稳但反弹克制；USD/IDR回落后仍偏弱。外资回流国债、持仓升至12.7%，10年期收益率难破7%。政策沟通与美紧缩预期降温成关键，股市受MSCI短撑但11月审议或放大波动。

2

Jul 2026

印尼盾企稳，油价回落支撑印尼盾债券，美元/印尼盾谨慎徘徊于18,000下方

油价回调后印尼在岸债汇企稳但反弹受限；USD/IDR跌破18000后获支撑仍偏弱。外资增配印尼盾债至12.7%，股流淡；10年期利率需破7%，关注美通胀与MSCI评审波动。

2

Jul 2026

美元/日元跌破161关口，疲弱美国非农就业数据强化美联储鸽派预期，干预风险上升

非农显著不及预期引发美元抛压，美元/日元跌至161附近；市场重定价美联储转鸽，9月降息概率飙升。日元获干预与加息预期支撑，期权布局看跌与波动交易成焦点。

2

Jul 2026

金价飙升突破4,100美元，疲弱美国非农就业数据拖累美元并削弱美联储加息预期

非农大幅不及预期引爆宽松定价：美元指数跌至两周低位，金价升破4,100至4,120。FedWatch下调9月加息概率，黄金ETF资金净流入回升。

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