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3

Jul 2026

受美国非农就业数据疲软及中国服务业数据提振，纽元/美元小幅走高

非农不及预期引发美元回落，NZD/USD 升至0.5710；中国服务业PMI扩张叠加RBNZ紧缩预期，政策利差交易升温，期权多头机会显现。

3

Jul 2026

受美伊会谈提振供应预期影响油价下跌；德国商业银行关注美国能源信息署（EIA）预测及OPEC+配额

油价跌至78美元附近，受美伊谈判与霍尔木兹重开预期驱动，市场提前定价供应宽松。然EIA库存降250万桶偏紧；关注EIA预测及OPEC+配额，情绪与数据背离或引反弹。

3

Jul 2026

美元/日元逼近1986年高位，仓位过度拉伸加剧日元干预风险

美元/日元逼近1986年来新高，干预风险与仓位拥挤引爆潜在“踩踏”。日元净空超15万张，波动率飙升，宜以期权对冲并捕捉165-170回撤机会。

3

Jul 2026

美元/日元反弹，因日本干预担忧再起、美国就业数据走软及套息交易支撑

美元/日元跌后反弹至161附近，日方或再干预成最大变量；非农疲弱压低美联储加息预期，但利差与套息支撑上行，163-165警戒，期权宜控风险。

3

Jul 2026

富国银行认为日本工资持续上涨将巩固日本央行货币政策正常化路径，市场聚焦9月加息

日本5月现金收入同比3.8%、经常性工资走强，巩固“工资—物价”循环与政策正常化依据；富国银行预计日本央行9月加息25bp、年底利率至1.25%，建议布局做空JGB与日元走强期权。

3

Jul 2026

预计英国央行7月将维持利率不变，企业信号显示英国物价与工资压力持续，支撑英镑走势

英国DMP通胀预期回落但定价与薪资压力粘性犹存：市场押注英银7月“鹰派按兵不动”概率超80%，或推升曲线陡峭化并支撑英镑相对欧元走强。

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