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4

Jul 2026

在区间交易倾向维持的背景下，美元兑新元回落至1.2901，关注1.2890支撑位

美元/新元剧震后回落至1.2901，短线或试探1.2890但下破概率有限；上方1.2935/1.2950承压。未来1-3周料维持1.2890–1.2990区间，隐波4.2%偏低，适宜卖出宽跨收权利金，警惕区间突破风险。

4

Jul 2026

英镑在1.3350附近企稳，疲弱美国就业数据引发市场对美联储加息前景的疑虑

英镑兑美元徘徊1.3350一线、本周涨逾1%；弱于预期非农降温9月加息定价，叠加英银鹰派薪资压力，政策分化驱动上行，关注1.3400突破。

4

Jul 2026

英镑守住周度涨幅，疲软美国就业数据削弱美联储9月加息预期

英镑兑美元周线料涨逾1%，美联储9月加息预期受疲弱非农动摇；聚焦7月14日通胀或引爆波动，建议跨式期权对冲，关注1.34阻力与1.32支撑。

4

Jul 2026

受美元走软提振，受疲软美国非农就业数据、伊朗紧张局势及 OPEC+ 动向影响，WTI 小幅走高

WTI报68.65美元小涨，弱非农压低美元助推计价效应；EIA库存意外下降、PMI回升修正供过剩预期。聚焦OPEC+政策与霍尔木兹风险，反弹动能蓄势待发。

3

Jul 2026

欧元/美元小幅走高，疲软美国就业数据削弱美联储加息预期并限制上行空间

欧美受弱于预期美国就业数据支撑小涨，交投清淡限制上行；市场重估美联储与欧央行紧缩路径，关注1.150-1.153阻力与期权策略机会。

3

Jul 2026

印度央行将把信用风险权重与评级机构违约记录挂钩，或引发公司债重新定价

印度央行拟自2027年4月起修订信用风险标准法，风险权重将同时锚定借款人评级与评级机构历史违约表现，强化风险敏感性、遏制评级套利，或触发公司债再定价与相对价值交易机会。

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