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6

Jul 2026

ANZ招聘广告指数6月下滑，加码市场对澳洲联储鸽派押注及澳元下行仓位布局

ANZ招聘广告指数6月转跌0.2%释放劳动力需求降温信号，领先指向失业率抬升、RBA政策趋鸽；布局澳元看跌、做多3年债期，并以指数跨式期权捕捉波动。

6

Jul 2026

美元/日元逼近161.70，市场对美联储加息的押注支撑美元；日本干预风险升温

美元/日元连涨至161.70，受美联储多次加息预期与美日利差支撑；惟美国就业走弱、干预风险升温。聚焦6月纪要与通胀，期权对冲优选。

6

Jul 2026

中国央行将人民币中间价设定得弱于市场预期，推动市场加码押注美元兑人民币进一步走强

人民币中间价意外偏弱：央行将USD/CNY定于6.8066、显著高于预期，叠加出口与PMI走弱及中美利差压力，市场或定价稳增长优先、美元兑人民币上行至6.85。

6

Jul 2026

新西兰澳新银行商品价格指数6月下跌1%，令纽元前景趋于黯淡

新西兰ANZ商品价格指数6月下跌1%逆转升势，叠加中国PMI收缩及乳制品价格回落，出口与增长预期承压，RBNZ或更鸽派；建议NZD/USD0.6200附近做空或买入看跌期权。

6

Jul 2026

欧元/美元维持区间震荡，霍尔木兹风险支撑美元，市场对美联储与欧洲央行加息押注降温

欧元/美元开局横盘，地缘风险托举美元但弱非农与通胀降温压制加息预期；欧央行偏鸽亦限欧元上行。EVZ低位、期权权利金偏廉，跨式策略博突破。

6

Jul 2026

澳大利亚墨尔本研究院通胀指标6月下降0.4%，强化市场对澳洲联储降息的押注

澳洲通胀指标6月环比-0.4%加速下行，通缩信号强化；市场将9月降息25bp概率上调至70%+，利率下行利好澳债与股指，澳元承压。

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