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6

Jul 2026

受霍尔木兹紧张局势推升美元影响，澳元/美元走低，汇价受制于0.6950斐波那契阻力位

澳美周一亚盘回落至0.6920，避险推升美元压制反弹；0.6950关键阻力未破或再探0.6869/0.6750，突破则看0.7077，宜用跨式期权捕捉波动。

6

Jul 2026

美元/加元持稳于1.4210附近，市场对美联储鹰派立场的押注与油市波动相互博弈

美元走强与市场押注美联储延续鹰派，推动USD/CAD升至1.4210多年高位；油价偏强支撑加元但OPEC+增产添供给过剩忧虑。周三美联储纪要或引爆波动。

6

Jul 2026

WTI在四个月低位附近企稳，OPEC+产量上升且伊朗制裁豁免在即

WTI三连涨仍徘徊四个月低位，霍尔木兹通行趋稳压制风险溢价；OPEC+增产及伊朗限时豁免或重启出口，供需再平衡引爆波动率机会。

6

Jul 2026

欧洲央行官员穆兰称：在市场权衡7月可能暂停加息之际，银行处于“良好位置”

欧央行官员称加息后政策已处“良好位置”，通胀与油价回落、PMI偏弱暗示紧缩或暂停；7月指引缺失料抬升欧元资产波动，期权跨式或受益。

6

Jul 2026

OPEC+ 8月增产预期料将压制原油价格，带动期权交易及WTI—布伦特价差交易

OPEC+8月增产18.8万桶/日，若9月延续将撤销2023限产。供应抬升或封顶油价；建议9月WTI卖虚值看涨收权利金，并以远期看跌对冲、关注WTI-Brent收敛。

6

Jul 2026

纽元/美元走低，商品价格下跌、美联储加息押注坚挺，市场静待新西兰联储利率决议

纽元兑美元两连涨后回落至0.5690：ANZ商品指数下跌与美元走强施压。市场聚焦新西兰联储或加息25bp及美联储纪要，波动率或显著抬升。

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