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27

Sep 2026

伊朗等待美国就霍尔木兹海峡重开条件作出回应，市场严阵以待避险情绪升温引发的波动

霍尔木兹海峡重开谈判悬而未决、封锁风险抬升，市场或转入风险厌恶并加剧波动；建议布局原油长波动率、增配黄金与美元，对冲权益及澳元等风险资产下行冲击。

27

Sep 2026

马克龙释放延布部署信号：市场走势分化，权衡油价风险、美元走强与比特币突破

马克龙拟向沙特延布部署法军护航能源设施，地缘溢出推升油价尾部风险；美债收益率走高抬升美元压制贵金属；股指分化叠加加密脆弱突破，反转窗口临近。

27

Sep 2026

COT极值预示澳元、欧元及天然气可能反转，金属行情显现过度延伸迹象

COT极值释放拐点信号：澳元商业指数100%、天然气94%或触发逼空反转；欧元商业买盘抬升至83%具修复空间；白银、铜商业指数仅8%，多头拥挤警惕回撤。

26

Sep 2026

CFTC数据显示：英镑与欧元空头持仓增加引发防御性转向，日元多头持仓回落

CFTC显示外汇仓位趋防御：欧元英镑空头增、日元多头降；黄金持仓95分位拥挤警惕回撤，油仓改善。多货币对价量背离，波动率或抬升。谨慎看待趋势。

26

Sep 2026

美元/韩元走低，受中秋节期间出口商抛售美元支撑韩元；AI芯片需求推动出口激增

USD/KRW自1,390回落至1,360，受出口商节前集中结汇压制美元。韩国出口同比+78.3%与AI芯片景气支撑韩元，建议短久期看跌期权布局下探1,340。

26

Sep 2026

美元/离岸人民币维持在6.72附近，盘整格局延续，关注6.7330阻力位

USD/CNH冲高6.7200后高位盘整，24小时料守6.7120-6.7220；动能支持再探6.7250/6.7330。政策分化与出口走弱施压人民币；6.7815下方中期仍偏下行。

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