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3

Jul 2026

由于美国就业数据疲软削弱美联储加息预期、且中国PMI提振澳元，澳元/美元走高

AUD/USD 受美元抛压续涨至0.6930，中国服务业PMI韧性支撑澳元；美国非农疲弱致美联储加息预期塌陷。关注霍尔木兹风险与0.7050阻力，建议0.70看涨期权控风险。

3

Jul 2026

中国服务业PMI回落但仍处于扩张区间，澳元尽管面临技术性阻力仍维持涨幅

中国服务业PMI仍处扩张区间、服务出口加速，强化对澳元基本面支撑；但澳元/美元受均线压制、RSI偏弱。关注0.6975阻力与0.6847支撑，期权对冲波动。

3

Jul 2026

中国人民银行将美元/人民币中间价定得更强、低于市场预期，释放在增长放缓背景下维持人民币有序偏强信号

中间价报6.8047强于前日但弱于市场估值，释放控节奏、抑制人民币过快升值信号；经济与出口偏弱下或维稳偏弱，波动率策略受益。

3

Jul 2026

英镑/美元走高，疲弱美国非农就业数据打压美元；英国央行加息预期及英国政局成市场焦点

爆点：美国非农仅增5.7万致美元走软，GBP/USD升至1.3350。美联储9月加息概率降至52%；英国通胀3.2%及加息预期90%支撑英镑，但政治不确定性抬升隐含波动。

3

Jul 2026

在美伊关系缓和降低地缘风险溢价并提振海湾地区供应流动之际，WTI油价下滑逼近68美元

WTI回落至68.40美元；美伊外交缓和致地缘风险溢价消退，霍尔木兹航运修复推动沙特、阿联酋出口回升叠加EIA库存意外增加，供给过剩扩大，油价下行压力加剧。

3

Jul 2026

欧元区通胀走软与美联储“更久维持高利率”倾向形成对比，欧元/美元震荡下行

欧元区通胀回落、加息预期降温压制欧元；美国就业分化仍支撑美元与“更高更久”。欧元/美元下探风险升温，关注拉加德表态与跨式期权机会。

3

Jul 2026

新西兰消费者信心6月回升，考验市场对新西兰联储降息预期并提振纽元前景

新西兰6月ANZ–Roy Morgan消费者信心升至91.3，虽仍低于100但环比修复，或强化RBNZ鹰派立场、压制降息预期，纽元及消费相关资产迎布局窗口。

3

Jul 2026

中国允许人民币对北亚货币升值以抑制芯片进口成本，削弱“低估”指控

人民币年内名义走强，尤其兑韩元升近11%，与半导体进口激增相关。通胀低迷限制REER，但名义升值削弱“低估”指控。策略建议短多CNH/JPY、CNH/KRW并远期买入看跌对冲政策反转风险。

3

Jul 2026

纽约梅隆银行表示，人民币走强遏制低估指控；中国加大从东北亚进口半导体力度

纽约梅隆称，人民币名义走强压缩“低估”指控空间，并被用作政策工具降低北亚半导体进口成本；关注NA-3顺差错配支撑及国产替代推进引发的潜在汇率反转交易窗口。

3

Jul 2026

美国就业数据疲弱拖累美元，墨西哥比索走强；《美墨加协定》（USMCA）审查不确定性犹存

美国非农爆冷叠加日元干预传闻压低美元，墨西哥比索走强，USD/MXN跌至17.48；但USMCA续期不确定与9月加息定价偏高，波动或放大。

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