Live Updates

3

Jul 2026

法国兴业银行警告：能源冲击传导滞后或致欧元区通胀再度加速至2026年

兴业银行警示欧元区通胀下行或仅暂缓：油价走弱或令7月同比降至2.55%，但能源冲击约16个月滞后传导未尽，2026年末峰值或至3%，通胀互换定价偏低。

3

Jul 2026

ING警告称，假期流动性偏薄或加剧美元/日元下行波动，干预风险上升

ING指出美元/日元在流动性趋薄背景下跌破161，干预风险显著抬升；一周期风险逆转降至-4.5反映期权对冲需求激增。若日银不转鹰，干预效应恐难持续。

3

Jul 2026

NIFTY指数在艾略特波浪支撑位反弹，GDP表现与外资机构资金流入支撑看多策略

NIFTY 五浪上行后现之字形三浪回调，等幅区域23876–23696确认支撑；GDP高增与FII强流入共振，策略偏多，关注23707枢轴与期权价差布局。

3

Jul 2026

富时指数在艾略特波浪回调获支撑、英国通胀降温后剑指新高

FTSE 于等长腿支撑区10370–10275确认三浪修正完结，10333低点反弹，趋势有望重启并再创新高；通胀回落至2%、GDP增0.7%助推，可布局近月看涨期权及虚值认沽信用价差获利。

3

Jul 2026

美国非农就业数据疲软打压美元，推迟美联储加息预期并提振金价上涨

非农显著低于预期引发利率预期重定价，美元走弱助推金价反弹至4,170美元。央行持续增持提供底部支撑；短线看多，关注4,156支撑与4,371阻力，期权界定风险。

3

Jul 2026

在美国就业数据走软缓和美联储加息预期之际，黄金反弹逼近4200美元

金价反弹至4,200美元、周线或五周首涨；弱就业数据令加息预期降温，Commerzbank称属修正性反弹，4,000美元支撑显现，策略偏卖波动率与限定风险期权布局。

3

Jul 2026

随着油价拖累加元走弱抵消美国就业数据走软及市场对美联储加息预期重新定价，美元/加元走高

美元/加元受加元疲弱与油价下行驱动逆势走高。美国非农不及预期压制美元有限，利差支撑仍在。策略建议买入9月虚值看涨期权，目标1.4400。

3

Jul 2026

随着欧洲央行加息预期降温且英国央行维持鹰派立场，欧元兑英镑在一年低位附近企稳

EUR/GBP触及一年低点后企稳，但欧央行通胀回落削弱加息预期、英银维持鹰派致利差偏向英镑。策略：买入0.8550看跌期权，关注0.8560破位。

3

Jul 2026

欧洲央行考虑将最低准备金率上调至2%，加快欧元区流动性正常化并对互换利差构成压力

传欧央行拟将最低准备金率由1%上调至2%以降付息成本；料抽离约1600亿欧元流动性，提前重塑货币市场，回购与€STR或走低、短端掉期利差趋窄。

3

Jul 2026

三菱日联金融集团认为，在美联储暂停加息预期压制美元之际，且欧洲央行鹰派立场延续，欧元兑美元料获支撑

美元转弱叠加ECB维持鹰派，MUFG称欧元或获利差支撑：美联储暂停预期降温、美债收益率回落；能源通胀尾部风险未消，EUR/USD上行可期。

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