Live Updates

8

Jul 2026

受霍尔木兹海峡紧张局势推升供应风险、原油波动率指数跳涨影响，WTI油价攀升逼近73美元

美伊谈判破裂叠加霍尔木兹海峡风险重定价，WTI升至73美元、OVX破45；库存回落与逆价差走阔强化供给收紧预期，建议偏多波动率及80–85美元看涨期权布局。

8

Jul 2026

中东紧张局势推升美元需求，美元/日元逼近40年高位；油价飙升令日元承压

中东冲突推升油价与避险美元，美元/日元逼近40年高位162.50；通胀与美联储加息预期升温、日央行掣肘，干预风险陡增，宜布局波动率期权。

8

Jul 2026

荷兰合作银行：顽固通胀或支撑英镑，但政治不确定性与债务压力或推动欧元兑英镑升至0.87

英镑跻身G10强势货币，受通胀黏性、加息预期与并购资金支撑。Rabobank警示财政与政治脆弱点，料英银年内按兵不动，EUR/GBP年底或回升至0.87附近。

8

Jul 2026

ING认为市场已基本计入勒庞竞选因素，但欧元下行风险仍存；预计欧元兑瑞典克朗将在年内晚些时候走弱

勒庞参选2027总统料已被计价，ING不纳入欧元政治风险溢价；法国OAT或阶段承压。欧元区催化剂有限，EUR/USD偏弱。瑞典通胀温和，EUR/SEK短期守11。

8

Jul 2026

新西兰联储重启加息周期，释放进一步收紧信号；地缘政治因素致纽元涨势消退

RBNZ三年来首度加息25个基点至2.50%并释放续紧缩信号，市场计入未来一年近100基点收紧。地缘扰动回吐纽元涨幅，反成逢低布局纽元多头与相对价值交易窗口。

8

Jul 2026

预计波兰央行将维持利率于3.75%，通胀风险令兹罗提及降息押注承压

ING称波兰央行或将利率维持3.75%至年末，降息观望通胀确认；燃油补贴到期与油价上行增压。EUR/PLN冲击4.30，期权做多波动率受益。

8

Jul 2026

加元随油价反弹走强提振“卢尼”，就业数据与美联储会议纪要成市场焦点

油价受地缘风险与OPEC+供给纪律支撑走强，加元随之上行，美元/加元回落。市场聚焦加拿大就业、FOMC纪要及BoC决议，波动率或抬升。

8

Jul 2026

在美元因美伊紧张局势及美国国债收益率上升而走强的背景下，金价回落至4,050美元附近

金价回落至4050美元，受美伊升级推升美元与美债收益率压制；油价走强强化“高利率更久”预期。关注美联储纪要，期权波动率升温，宜采用限定风险偏空策略。

8

Jul 2026

尽管通胀盈亏平衡率下行，BNY iFlow仍提示美股持仓倾向押注通胀上行

通胀预期随能源走弱回落，但美股资金流仍维持通胀敏感配置，缺口创18个月新高；劳动力与核心通胀粘性支撑高波动，衍生品宜卖短期虚值PUT、布局工业材料看涨价差并以可选消费长期PUT对冲。

8

Jul 2026

德国10年期国债标售收益率升至3.09%，推高主权融资成本

德国10年期国债拍卖中标收益率升至3.09%，融资成本上行。欧元区通胀超预期、ECB偏鹰，或推升利率曲线，压制股市并抬升欧元及波动率。

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