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Live Updates

9

Jul 2026

纽元/美元在新西兰联储鹰派加息后企稳，受中国数据与中东紧张局势拖累

纽元兑美元升至0.5735，受RBNZ加息至2.50%并释放续紧缩信号提振；但中国通胀走弱与美伊冲突推升美元避险压制。隐波11.5%提示宽跨式布局。

9

Jul 2026

德国5月进口下降2.5%，加剧对需求疲弱及欧洲央行降息预期的担忧

德国5月进口环比骤降2.5%，较预期偏离2.6个百分点，确认内需与景气同步走弱。关注欧元贬值、DAX承压、VSTOXX抬升及ECB宽松预期升温交易机会。

9

Jul 2026

德国出口超预期，提振DAX与欧元预期，并加大德国国债收益率上行压力

德国5月出口环比增0.9%逆转预期降0.3%，凸显外需韧性。或催化DAX补涨、欧元走强，并推升德债收益率，策略偏多股票做空Bund期货。

9

Jul 2026

英镑小幅走高，英国领导人竞选拉开帷幕，英镑兑美元守住1.3400上方

英国政治不确定性消退提振英镑：GBP/USD守稳1.3400上方。技术面偏多，阻力1.3470、支撑1.3300。通胀回落与美就业降温，建议8月牛市价差布局。

9

Jul 2026

印度黄金价格回落，全球金价聚焦美联储降息预期与央行需求

警惕回调机会：印度金价周四走弱，卢比计价回落。美联储降息预期压制美元、利好黄金；央行持续净增持强化底部支撑，短期或整理后再上行。

9

Jul 2026

在美联储内部分歧与伊朗局势紧张重塑降息预期之际，美元/瑞郎企稳于0.8070附近

美联储纪要揭示政策分歧、加息定价升至30%+，叠加霍尔木兹风险推油价上行与避险行情。瑞士央行干预上限瑞郎，USD/CHF或上破0.8070。

9

Jul 2026

美国通胀与央行购金预期影响前景，马来西亚金价回落

马来西亚金价周四回落：金价报532.34林吉特/克、托拉价降至6,209.12。央行持续增持与“更高更久”利率预期博弈，波动或加剧，期权策略受关注。

9

Jul 2026

美元/日元自40年高位回落，干预预期升温、美联储会议纪要及中东紧张局势施压

美元/日元高位回调至162附近，纪要不够鹰派拖累美元；美日利差支撑套息。日本干预风险与隐含波动率上升叠加中东冲突，建议期权对冲下行。

9

Jul 2026

中国6月CPI增速放缓、PPI回升，对大宗商品及澳元构成压力

中国6月CPI同比回落至1.0%低于预期、环比降0.3%，PPI升至4.1%凸显“成本上行、需求偏弱”。政策宽松空间打开，降息预期升温，澳元与大宗商品承压，衍生品对冲配置升温。

9

Jul 2026

中国6月CPI同比下降0.3%，加剧通缩担忧并提升市场对北京政策宽松的押注

6月CPI环比降0.3%低于预期，通缩压力加剧、定价权走弱；建议配置偏空工业大宗与商品货币、对冲股市下行，同时警惕央行降准降息刺激与“输出型通缩”外溢。

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