Live Updates

21

Jul 2026

日本转向更积极的财政规划，险资抢购超长期日本国债，日元波动风险上升

日本《经济财政方针》转向负责任扩张，拟2040年公私投资370万亿日元、取消单年基础财政盈余；险资增配超长JGB、外资抛短券。财政扩张叠加BoJ加息或推升日元与曲线波动，衍生品机会浮现。

21

Jul 2026

尽管新西兰CPI高于预期，纽元/美元仍走低；中东风险支撑美元维持坚挺

新西兰CPI超预期推升RBNZ续紧预期，NZD/USD仍受强美元与地缘避险压制。策略：构建牛市看涨价差并配深度价外看跌对冲。

21

Jul 2026

英国资产下挫：伯纳姆财政计划推升英国国债收益率突破5%，英镑承压

伯纳姆新内阁与财政“灵活性”表态引发再融资疑虑：10年期英债收益率破5%、英镑领跌G10。关注10年规划与VAT下调细则，建议期权对冲波动。

21

Jul 2026

加元缩窄跌幅，市场聚焦美国关税威胁；美元/加元企稳于关键技术位附近

特朗普拟30天内对加出口部分商品征50%关税，或冲击约5%对美出口；加元随美元走软反弹但受压。USD/CAD公允1.4015，40日均线1.4059，关注1.4125/1.4160-70阻力。衍生品宜布局牛市价差。

21

Jul 2026

中东局势紧张支撑金价小幅走高至4,000美元，市场对美联储利率前景预期限制上行空间

中东局势支撑金价围绕4,060美元震荡，但油价高企推升通胀预期、强化美联储偏紧政策，限制上行。关注4,000/3,948支撑与4,174/4,200阻力，宜区间交易与期权对冲。

21

Jul 2026

美国Redbook零售销售增速降至7.8%，助推押注美债反弹及美元走软交易

美国红皮书指数同比降至7.8%跌破8%关口，指向零售增速放缓与需求降温；或促降息预期升温、压低美债收益率，利多国债期货与欧日货币多头，警惕消费板块回撤。

21

Jul 2026

欧元兑英镑走高，英国财政忧虑拖累英镑；期权交易员瞄准0.8700水平

英国财政不确定性升温、10年期金边债收益率逼近4.3%拖累英镑，叠加欧元区ZEW超预期提振欧元，EUR/GBP自一年低位反弹至0.8527；建议期权布局上看0.8700，并警惕英CPI/PPI引发波动。

21

Jul 2026

新西兰第二季度CPI超预期提振市场对新西兰联储加息押注，纽元/美元逼近七周高位

新西兰二季度CPI小幅超预期提振NZD/USD逼近七周高位，但仍低于RBNZ预测；通胀与核心通胀走强支撑加息预期，市场定价年内再上调约60基点。

21

Jul 2026

英镑回升，伯纳姆的财政承诺未能遏制长期英国国债抛售潮

伯纳姆就任首相后英镑收复部分跌幅，但长端英国国债持续承压，30年期收益率走高。能源VAT下调与潜在国防扩支引发财政路径重估，波动上行。

21

Jul 2026

美国ADP四周平均招聘人数下滑，强化劳动力市场降温及美联储鸽派预期

美国ADP就业四周均值降至16.5千人，私营招聘动能降温；政策转鸽预期升温。关注做多SOFR期货、国债看涨期权及标普保护性看跌与VIX看涨，押注收益率下行与波动上行。

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