Live Updates

27

Jul 2026

随着强劲增长支撑新元走强，金管局再度收紧政策；美元兑新元（USD/SGD）小幅走低

MAS二度意外上调S$NEER升值斜率，维持中轴宽度与通胀预测；6%上半年GDP强化鹰派定价，USD/SGD或指1.2750，建议买看跌、做多波动并布局1Y SORA payer。

27

Jul 2026

油价下跌拖累澳元/美元自0.7011回落，市场聚焦澳大利亚CPI与美联储利率决议

AUD/USD亚盘冲高回落仍偏强；中东停火压低油价、缓解通胀并提振风险偏好。看点：澳洲6月CPI、RBA讲话及美联储利率决议，技术面关键0.6990。

27

Jul 2026

WTI跌至82.60美元，因美伊暂停缓和风险溢价、波动率回落

中东局势降温致地缘溢价快速消退，WTI 跳空暴跌至82.6美元、布伦特失守90。隐含波动率回落催生卖虚值与熊市价差机会，但须以期权对冲霍尔木兹尾部风险。

27

Jul 2026

法国巴黎银行预计英国经济增长放缓、通胀上行，并预测英格兰银行将于2026年加息

法国巴黎银行警示：英国增长动能衰减、地缘冲突推升通胀至3.2%，促英央行2026下半年或加息25bp；长端收益率高企后2027回落，英镑趋弱。

27

Jul 2026

欧元区指标走强，市场已计价欧洲央行9月加息预期；欧元/美元在1.1483附近受限

欧元区领先指标回暖，德国IFO升至86.6且预期分项领涨，PMI与ZEW共振释放复苏信号；但通胀仍偏高，市场押注ECB9月或再加息，欧元上行受限。

27

Jul 2026

市场关注美联储按兵不动，100美元油价加剧通胀阴霾；黄金、美元/日元与英镑成焦点

FOMC决议临近，油价站上100美元令通胀更棘手；若美联储偏鹰推升美元与美债收益率，黄金或回撤4,000；日元、英镑波动风险亦升温。

27

Jul 2026

欧元兑美元交易员严阵以待：美联储利率决议与欧元区通胀数据临近，波动或加剧

EUR/USD回吐涨幅逼近多月阻力，宏观事件与美联储决议或引爆波动；建议买入短期限看跌、美元牛市价差，对冲偏鹰风险；WTI与欧元区通胀催化。

27

Jul 2026

7月抛售潮后欧洲国债收益率大幅上扬，市场计入欧洲央行进一步加息预期，推动反转交易升温

7月全球债市抛售推升西欧收益率约30bp，市场计价ECB或再加息至2.75%。但上行动能或过度，空头回补风险上升，建议收固定、买Bund期权博弈均值回归。

27

Jul 2026

DBS警告：美国核心通胀黏性叠加伊朗因素推升燃料成本，在需求降温背景下令美联储暂停加息更趋复杂

星展称美国核心通胀黏性持续高于3%压制降息，需求走弱支撑暂停加息；叠加国债短端供给与地缘油价风险，建议布局“高利率更久”并做多波动对冲。

27

Jul 2026

美国CPI回落降低加息概率，市场静待美联储决议及关键PCE通胀数据

CPI降温缓释短期通胀，但美联储指引不足致政策不确定性犹存、美元获支撑；市场聚焦FOMC决议与PCE数据，或引爆前端利率、汇市及风险资产波动。

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